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【南太】92P TCFA取消 LOW

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2011-12-19 19:09 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 c789654 於 2011-12-22 19:40 編輯

20111219.0455.f15.x.ir1km.92PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-136S-1581E.83pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
jwpk9899 + 10 恭喜搶到擾動!!

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mustang|2011-12-19 19:58 | 顯示全部樓層
回復 1# c789654


   你好,不好意思可以請教一下這一張圖的網址
謝謝!!!
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jwpk9899|2011-12-19 20:03 | 顯示全部樓層
回復 2# mustang


   他那張圖是取自NRL 那裡有很多模式的雲圖 他那張應該是NRL放雲圖時就放那張的
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mustang|2011-12-19 20:07 | 顯示全部樓層
回復 3# jwpk9899


   萬分感謝!{:4_148:}
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mustang|2011-12-20 21:43 | 顯示全部樓層

RE: 【南太】92P 成旋機率升等為:中等!

abpwsair.jpg 92P成旋機率升等為:中等!
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c789654|2011-12-21 08:55 | 顯示全部樓層
WTPS21 PGTW 202130MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4S 155.2E TO 18.0S 157.9EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 202030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 14.1S 155.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201747Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALSO INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. RECENT SCATTEROMETERY DATA SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SUPPORT THE LLCC POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 212130Z.//NNNN sh9212.gif
92P_202130sair.jpg
TCFA了
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c789654|2011-12-22 19:38 | 顯示全部樓層
abpwsair.jpg
ABPW10 PGTW 220600MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/220600Z-230600ZDEC2011//RMKS/1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 156.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NMNORTH-NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 7 DEGREESPOLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD INTO EVEN STRONGER VWS AS IT APPROACHES UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM INTO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. A RECENT AMSU-B CROSS SECTION PRODUCT INDICATES THE ABSENCE OF A WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AT THE CORE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//NNNN 20111222.0624.f17.x.ir1km.92PINVEST.20kts-1001mb-186S-1560E.71pc.jpg
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