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【南印】04S BENILDE 結構受損 持續減弱中!

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[LV.10]以壇為家III

2011-12-26 21:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2012-3-16 20:20 編輯

20111226.1030.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.96SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-80S-940E.100pc.jpg
1112310836bbc9bf63f9698186.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
c789654 + 10 恭喜搶到擾動

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簽到天數: 951 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2011-12-27 19:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2011-12-31 08:13 編輯

MEDIUM abiosair.jpg
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簽到天數: 951 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2011-12-28 22:02 | 顯示全部樓層
老J 第1報  上看C1(預測70KTS) sh0412.gif

si201104_sat.jpg

好可怕的對流 難道是傳說中的CDO!?
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[LV.7]常住居民III

c789654|2011-12-29 08:29 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC第二報(預測上90KTS) sh0412.gif

si201104_sat.jpg

才沒注意幾天就上TS了...
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簽到天數: 951 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2011-12-30 17:41 | 顯示全部樓層
命名BENILDE
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[LV.7]常住居民III

c789654|2011-12-30 19:13 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 第4報 依舊測預上90KTS
REMARKS:292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3S 82.0E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN INCREASE IN SYMMETRY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW CENTER FIX WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE LLCC IN THE IR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE VALUE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 04S IS A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WHICH SEEMS TO BE OVERCOMING THE VWS. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING, DEEP MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TC 04S WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER TAU 72 WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A RE-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES OUT OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z AND 302100Z.//NNNN
sh0412.gif

si201104_sat.jpg
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2011-12-31 08:13 | 顯示全部樓層
上看C4 好嚇人啊 si201104_5day.gif

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

...|2011-12-31 08:36 | 顯示全部樓層
好久沒來囉~

20111231_0000_meteo7_x_ir1km_bw_04SBENILDE_70kts-970mb-137S-779E_100pc.jpg
目前BENILDE處於風眼構成之後整理的階段
南面的結構偏差 較為薄弱
還可以再修一修 當然未來前景看好^_^
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