【索馬利亞】01A Murjan 登陸索馬利亞快速消散

jwpk9899 · 2012-10-19 18:33

這坨昨天就在關注了
其實北印的風季通常不會在夏天
因為夏天有強勁的西南季風風切很強擾動根本發展不來
秋天風切就減弱了
夏天出個氣旋西南季風就GG了...

阿隆 · 2012-10-20 21:38

晚間地面風場掃瞄所見"中心"已經登陸印度東南端了!

但論壇上首頁地圖所見的定位是已經進入阿拉伯海,故就以現有資料研判:原中心登陸後減弱消失,但整體環流雲系強度仍維持,轉由在印度西方近海的副中心所取代:curse:

阿隆 · 2012-10-21 14:42

雖然熬過陸地破壞現已進入海面重組,但前方阿拉伯海目前是更乾冷氣流盤踞,不知還可再展現更意料之外的生命力?:curse:

阿隆 · 2012-10-21 16:16

jwpk9899 · 2012-10-21 18:11

好的就RAMMB的風場和NRL底層掃描來看這95B的LLCC整體而言算是頗弱的
其實這隻就是沒有甚麼深層對流(出自Wayan副總監)

jwpk9899 · 2012-10-22 19:50

終於LOW了

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2N 68.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM EAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220144Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER. A 211902Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC MODELS FORECAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC AND LACK OF CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.