簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-12-27 22:49
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TCFA!!
WTPS21 PGTW 271430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0S 163.8E TO 12.0S 161.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 271200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 163.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5S
163.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST
OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 270914Z SSMIS PASS.
THE LLCC LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. MULTIPLE NUMERICAL MODELS, INCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS,
FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
281430Z.//
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