阿隆

jwpk9899

如果EC的預測成真的話
96S會變成一個很強的氣旋  撞到馬達加斯加東海岸後 往南走 之後被勾走
97S也會發展成一個餅
95S呢 預測很弱 大概只有熱低的強度  不過事實會如何呢 就看他的造化囉
94P呢 預測會先增強為一個中颱等級的氣旋 但是會突然的減弱消失掉(20S而已....

阿隆

jwpk9899

JTWC :  LOW(據說EC仍然預測他很有中颱實力優
(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7S 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THIS DISTURBANCE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, RESULTING IN SLOW CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE LESS THAN OPTIMAL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jwpk9899

他....他終於MEDIUM了
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 85.2E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 85.8E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A 301534Z METOP-A IMAGE INDICATES AN
IMPROVING, DEFINED LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
BROAD CENTER. A 301534Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED
NEAR THE LLCC AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A DEEP SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REMAINED
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

桑達

他....終於TCFA了

阿隆

阿隆

強度降為25kts底層對流削弱不少,看來若不能短期重整再起?未來將在海上逐漸消散...

JTWC取消TCFA降評為MEDIUM,僅管在風季中的擾動發展還是常有意外。