13S.Felleng 巔峰已過已轉化為溫帶氣旋＊

桑達 · 2013-1-23 18:05

  強烈熱帶氣旋
編號：07 R ( 13 S )
名稱：Felleng

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期：2013 年 01 月 25 日 20 時
　命名日期　　：2013 年 01 月 28 日 20 時
　消散日期　　：2013 年 02 月 04 日 20 時
　登陸地點　　：-

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
留尼旺氣象部(MFR)： 90 kts  (    ITC   )
美國海軍 (JTWC)　：115   kts  ( CAT 4 )
海平面最低氣壓　： 966   百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片

10.2S-70.6E

阿隆 · 2013-1-24 01:07

jwpk9899 · 2013-1-26 13:15

本帖最後由 jwpk9899 於 2013-1-26 13:16 編輯

目前整體的螺旋性很棒呢

整個底層結構看起來已經頗完美了

強度來到了30kt 相信不久可能就會發布TCFA

另外目前評級為MEDIUM了

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 67.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 66.8E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 260059Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE, OBSCURING THE LLCC, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE EAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20S 83E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jwpk9899 · 2013-1-26 19:42

WTXS21 PGTW 260930MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 66.1E TO 12.9S 60.0EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 260523Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 12.5S 65.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 65.7E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX HAS PASSED, HOWEVER THE STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WHICH IS EVIDENT IN A 260402Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 260523Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL LLCC WITH 30 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND LIGHTER, 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A DIVERGENT AREA SOUTH OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 270930Z.//NNNN