阿隆

93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-6.0N-144.0E

krichard2011

93WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-6.0N-144.0E.

colinwoo

請問紅色的是什麼東西？

服部武藏

感覺雲系還不錯呢



風切變趨勢圖 那邊風切稍強 才剛剛被編號 可以繼續觀察^^



低層輻合 天啊 這也太好了吧



高層輻散 真強耶~~~

93W可以好好的觀察一下 目前大氣條件似乎都非常有利他的發展呢

colinwoo

目前雖然風切稍強和它尚未發展出能抵禦風切的高層反氣旋，但它的中心並無裸露，看來這貨有希望啊! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

11:21 小都補圖

krichard2011

93W幅合普通但幅散相當良好
因此對流源源不絕的爆出
此區的得渦度也有逐漸泛黃甚至發橘的趨勢出現
NCEP也開始有訊號指出將有系統在這附近出現
這個擾動的卻有值得觀察的價值

martin191919

MEDIUM!!!
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.8N 143.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162334Z ASCAT IMAGE, HOWEVER,
DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
不知道今日餘下時間有沒有HIGH???

Herb

環境好.....擾動頻發一波波
93W出身自低緯度 ITCZ 中的東風波動
受惠於北面副高南側的高空東風倒槽TUTT
帶來良好的高空輻散而助長