03E.Cosme 乾空氣入侵快速減弱＊

krichard2011 · 2013-6-21 08:28

  一級颶風
編號  : 03E ( 2013 )
名稱  : Cosme

  基本資料
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 06 月 21 日
命名日期       : 2013 年 06 月 24 日
消散日期       : 2013 年 06 月 28 日
登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
   美國國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：  75 kts  ( CAT 1 )
   海平面最低氣壓　　　　  ： 981   百帕

  過去路徑圖
  討論帖圖片
94E.INVEST.20kts-1005mb-11.2N-94.9W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

马鞍二世 · 2013-6-22 13:59

TXPZ24 KNES 220001
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 21/2345Z

C. 11.7N

D. 101.6W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON .2+ BROKEN BAND ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.0. MET=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SCHWARTZ

WTPN21 PHNC 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.7N 100.0W TO 16.8N 108.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 101.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12N
100.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 101.2W, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED
UNDERNEATH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 220030Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 211852Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 15-20 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANLAYSIS INDICATES GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW (5 TO
10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 18 AND 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230300Z.
//

jwpk9899 · 2013-6-22 15:25

TCFA

阿隆 · 2013-6-23 09:57

緯度12/強度30kts,預測沿墨西哥外海平行移動,底層已大為改善中,以此研判今日內升格機率大增!

马鞍二世 · 2013-6-23 11:01

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 22 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

2. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE
IN A DAY OR TWO DUE TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE
TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES
ERRATICALLY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN

TXPZ24 KNES 230011
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94E)

B. 22/2345Z

C. 12.2N

D. 102.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OSCAT AND ANIMATED VIS SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY JET EAST OF
THE WAVE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER TO AROUND 13.4N
102.7W...INDICATIVE OF POSSIBLE WAVE BREAKING AND SOME SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURVED BAND IN VIS MEASURES .5
ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 2.5...BUT IT IS ALL NEW CONVECTION IN THE LAST FEW
IMAGES...SO GIVEN ILL DEFINED LLC AND NEW CONVECTION...DT IS DISREGARDED
AT THIS TIME. MET IS 2.0. PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT AND NOT INCREASING
1.0 IN 6HRS AT SUCH A DEVELOPMENTAL PHASE

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...GALLINA

jwpk9899 · 2013-6-23 14:37

基本上一個TC得形狀已經出來囉
也許下午-晚上就能升格了

马鞍二世 · 2013-6-23 18:41

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.