A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...IS PRODUCINGAN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY A COUPLE OFHUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED CIRCULATION IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THEATMOSPHERE...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED SURFACECIRCULATION....AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVEFOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEMHAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. SHOWERSAND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAYWELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...AND COULD SPREAD ACROSSTHE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TONIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BEFOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE.
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOWPRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDAAND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND SOMEDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDSBECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TOMOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMASAND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY ANDSATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGHOFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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