07E.Gil 結構重整中預估將重新增強＊

krichard2011 · 2013-7-30 09:12

  一級颶風
  編號  : 07E
  名稱  : Gil
基本資料
  擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 07 月 30 日
  命名日期       : 2013 年 07 月 31 日
  消散日期       : 2013 年 08 月 07 日
  登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
   美國國家颶風中心 (NHC) ：  75 kts  ( CAT 1 )
   海平面最低氣壓　　　　  ： 985   百帕
  過去路徑圖
  討論帖圖片

99E.INVEST.20kts-1009mb-10.6N-110.4W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

马鞍二世 · 2013-7-30 13:49

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART
难道是GFs预测的第二个中北太平洋货色？

krichard2011 · 2013-7-30 23:17

JTWC 發出TCFA
整體螺旋性相當好對流相當扎實
底層也建立得差不多
後期可看性相當高

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
215 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 112.9W TO 14.4N 120.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
301400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N
114.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
112.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 114.3W, APPROXIMATELY 685 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
JUST SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL NUMERIC MODELS
ARE PREDICTING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

krichard2011 · 2013-7-30 23:23

本帖最後由阿隆於 2013-7-31 04:22 編輯

剛發完上一篇之後隨即升格07E
一天之內從LOW躍升到升格07E
還真是不容易個人覺得很有潛力的一隻

幫補上JTWC首報:短期爆發上看Cat1與預測生於海且可能逝於海路徑圖。阿隆

马鞍二世 · 2013-7-31 06:51

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    EP072013
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES
BECOMING NOTICEABLY BETTER DEFINED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
IS 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS...WEAK SHEAR...AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE
LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL.

GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
WESTWARD FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE
APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN A DAY OR TWO...SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/2100Z 12.7N 116.1W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  31/0600Z 13.2N 117.9W 45 KT  50 MPH
24H  31/1800Z 13.9N 120.0W 50 KT  60 MPH
36H  01/0600Z 14.5N 122.1W 55 KT  65 MPH
48H  01/1800Z 15.0N 124.2W 60 KT  70 MPH
72H  02/1800Z 15.8N 127.5W 65 KT  75 MPH
96H  03/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W 55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 16.5N 134.0W 45 KT  50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
嗯，的确蛮有潜力的，第二报就命名了