krichard2011

92LINVEST.20kts-NAmb-16.3N-81.3W

krichard2011

螺旋性開始有了
但整體對流還是有待加強
目前整個結構似乎呈現一個很不對稱的情形
但 FWC-N 還是發出了TCFA
NHC也提升了評價為70%(HIGH)
未來有望成為CNN的焦點



以下為FWC-N的資料...

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 82.9W TO 20.4N 88.2WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 17.1N 82.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.

以下為NHC的資料...

1. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH...AND IS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND BELIZE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.