martin191919

95EINVEST.20kts-1007mb-10.5N-93.0W

martin191919

NHC:10%---5DAYS 70%

martin191919

NHC:40%---48hr 90%

martin191919

T值 1.5
TXPZ25 KNES 261208
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  26/1145Z
C.  14.8N
D.  97.5W
E.  THREE/GOES-E
F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THEN FROM THE LAST TWO
CLASSIFICATIONS.  BANDING SEEMS TO BE COMING TOGETHER POSSIBLY YIELDING
THE INCREASE IN T-DATA INTENSITY SEEN BELOW.  CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5.  MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...KIBLER

martin191919

JTWC : HIGH
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 98.1W TO 17.6N 105.9W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 261200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 98.9W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
97.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 98.9W, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 10
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS EXCELLENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS, BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, ARE ESTIMATED AT
20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENED CONVECTION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

martin191919

NHC：50%
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REACH
COLDER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY...
AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME IS NOT LIKELY.  THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

martin191919

NHC : 0%
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.