10E.Juliette 減弱為TD，海温漸涼，開始消散，並發FW＊

martin191919 · 2013-8-27 21:52

  熱帶風暴
編號  : 10E ( 2013 )
名稱  : Juliette

  基本資料
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年  08 月 27 日 21 時
命名日期       : 2013 年  08 月 29 日 06 時
消散日期       : 2013 年  08 月 30 日
登陸地點       : 未登陸(輕擦加利福尼亞半島)

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
   美國國家颶風中心 (NHC) :  45 kts  ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓　　　　  ：999 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
96E INVEST.25kts-1007mb-13.8N-102.8W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

martin191919 · 2013-8-28 09:16

TCFA
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 102.3W TO 20.2N 109.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 102.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.8N
102.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 102.9W, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION AROUND A CONSOLIDATING AND
QUICKLY IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271657Z ASCAT PASS
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE
DEFINED AND 20 KNOT WINDS HAVE BECOME ALMOST COMPLETELY WRAPPED
AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND LOW
(05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

martin191919 · 2013-8-28 09:17

NHC : 50%
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY AFTER THAT TIME...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

martin191919 · 2013-8-28 10:15

T1.0

TXPZ26 KNES 280011
TCSENP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96E)

B.  27/2345Z

C.  15.9N

D.  103.9W

E.  FIVE/GOES-E

F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...CENTER BASED ON CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. NO RECENT MICROWAVE
TO HELP DETERMINE LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTION MEASURES GT
2/10 FOR A DT=1.0. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...MCCARTHY

martin191919 · 2013-8-28 22:21

NHC:40%
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS.