donaldfan

  一級颶風   
編號  : 09L ( 2013 )
名稱  : Humberto

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 09 月 08 日
命名日期         : 2013 年 09 月 09 日
消散日期         : 2013 年 09 月 19 日
登陸地點         : 無
   
  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
    國家颶風中心 (NHC)：  75   kts
    海平面最低氣壓　 　：960 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
94L直達車~~~~~
20130907.2045.goes13.x.ir1km_bw.91LINVEST.20kts-1006mb-135N-170W.100pc.jpg

2. A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.

CX723-A330

貼上自家定位雲圖:

SHYUDOL

NHC評級升到HIGH 70%囉
看目前這種速度  再加上外觀來看
也許有機會突破大西洋今年的魔咒
成為今年大西洋第一個Cat1以上的TC(不過還是得看他的造化

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZEDNEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEASTOF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONSAPPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICALDEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THEDISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH TOWARD THECAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND AHIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULDMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ORWARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS.  REGARDLESS OFTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS AREPOSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY.

krichard2011

升格09L了 上看Cat.1
說不定能成為今年大西洋最強旋

CX723-A330

000
FONT14 KNHC 090844

PWSAT4TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3         

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013               

0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2013                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR     LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                              
升格了，命名為Humberto

krichard2011

FWC-N最新一報上看Cat.1上限
說不定有望成今年大西洋最強旋

SHYUDOL

外觀很不錯~底層也疑似再捲風眼當中~上望Cat.2囉  目前強度也差不多來到TS上限了

INIT  10/0900Z 14.4N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  10/1800Z 15.0N  27.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  11/1800Z 17.9N  28.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  13/0600Z 23.7N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  14/0600Z 25.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  15/0600Z 26.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

krichard2011

從多頻掃描來看
底層似乎已經開始建立
早上看的時候 深層對流幾乎都沒完全蓋在中心
不過現在有稍微改善 惟第二項限部分還有待補強