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krichard2011|2013-9-11 14:10
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換這隻被評級Medium...
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 149.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 145.5E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MSI AND A 110220Z OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE MONSOON DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR 19N 145E. MSI SHOWS THAT THERE IS ALSO STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 147.6E AND EXPOSED, WEAK MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF GUAM. A 110323Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK CORE OF 05-15 KNOT WINDS WITH STRONGER WINDS (20 TO 25 KNOTS) DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND LACK OF DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS) AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ENHANCED BY A POINT SOURCE OVER THE CENTER AND TWO LARGE TUTT CELLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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