t02436

擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 09 月 16 日 11:00

擾動消散日期 : 2013 年 09 月 19 日

90W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-16.2N-113.1E

阿隆

90W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-16.2N-113.1E

t02436

已評Medium!
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 113.2E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 160226Z METOP-B DEPICTS WEAK, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 160227Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND ALSO DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

frintezza

JMA GW, 到底誰是天兔, 誰是帕布?


至於後期, 個人覺得兩者互動不大, 都是向偏西的方向移動

還是重點關注99W吧~

krichard2011

JMA的動作真快
NRL才剛編號沒多久就GW
不過這底層似乎弱了點 也頗鬆散
NRL定位的點根本是一片空洞
結構還需要整合

888894

看來很多人都只顧著天兔的路徑而忘記了90w的存在啊

婆婆

888894 發表於 2013-9-17 23:38
看來很多人都只顧著天兔的路徑而忘記了90w的存在啊

中央氣象局已經在稍走判90W死刑了:L

　二、低氣壓９９８百帕，在北緯１６度，東經１１２度，
即在中西沙島海面，向西緩慢移動。

jwpk9899

婆婆 發表於 2013-9-17 23:46
中央氣象局已經在稍走判90W死刑了

　二、低氣壓９９８百帕，在北緯１６度，東經１１２度，

到了兩點~又把它變回熱帶性低氣壓了

二、熱帶性低氣壓９９８百帕，在北緯１６度，東經１１２度，即在中西沙島海面，向西緩慢移動，有發展為輕度颱風的趨勢，本局正密切注意中。
然後呢 老J發布TCFA了