簽到天數: 815 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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martin191919|2013-10-6 15:08
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JTWC : LOW
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.5N 172.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 650 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPARSE AMOUNT OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY BROAD (~350 NM DIAMETER), ALBEIT
WELL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 052153Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATES A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, YET CONSOLIDATING LLCC, WITH WEAK
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) INNER-CORE WINDS AND STRONGER (20-25 KNOTS) WINDS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY. MULTIPLE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE DRY AIR
INTRUSION AND LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE AMSU
TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION PRODUCT INDICATES A SLIGHTLY COLD-
CORE SYSTEM WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FACT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER MARGINAL SST CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE PRODUCT INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY A SYMMETRIC COLD-CORE SYSTEM AND THUS SUBTROPICAL IN
NATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. |
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