阿隆

  極強氣旋風暴   
  編號  : BOB 04 ( 02B )
  名稱  : 斐林 ( Phailin )

   基本資料   
  擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 05 日 00 時
  命名日期         : 2013 年 10 月 09 日 20 時
  消散日期         : 2013 年 10 月 14 日 08 時
  登陸地點         : 印度奧里薩省

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速
　印度氣象局 (IMD)   :  115   kts (  ESCS )
　美國海軍 (JTWC)   :   140  kts (  CAT 5 )                                                   
　最低氣壓 (RSMC)
　海平面最低氣壓 :   936  百帕

  過去路徑圖  
  討論帖圖片  
90W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-12.4N-100.5E


以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

晚兩分...殘念TAT
有圖了~~定位還沒看到

.

t02436

近岸爆發已評Low!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9N 102.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051119Z WINDSAT IMAGE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. SINCE THE LLCC APPEARS DISORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

SHYUDOL

(剛剛居然按錯帖...)
JMA認為他是一個熱帶低壓
另外整體雲系逐漸進入孟加拉灣
晚點看看定位會不會改過去
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 101E WEST 15 KT.

jwpk9899

JTWC評級MEDIUM囉

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 98.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS TRACKED OFF THE MALAY PENINSULA
AND OVER WATER IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 071439Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 071439Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

SHYUDOL

JTWC也發布TCFA囉

另外IMD編號BOB 04 不過也很奇怪
八月中的時候IMD才編過一次BOB4 怎麼這次又是BOB4...

Time of issue: 1130 hours IST Dated: 08-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/01
Sub: Depression over north Andaman Sea.
Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over north Andaman Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 08thth October 2013 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 96.00E, about 350 km east-northeast of Port Blair, 1450 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1520 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over Andaman Islands during the same period.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Nicobar Islands during this period.
Fishermen of Andaman Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hrs.
The next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, 08thth October 2013.

krichard2011

JTWC 升格02B 預測強度上看Cat.2