1325 百合中心登陸逐漸減弱

t02436 · 2013-10-7 20:59

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 16:58 編輯

  中度颱風
編號  : 1325 ( 24W )
名稱  : 百合 ( NARI )

  基本資料
  擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 07 日 21 時
  命名日期       : 2013 年 10 月 09 日 20 時
  消散日期       : 2013 年 10 月 16 日 15 時
  登陸地點       : 菲律賓呂宋島奧羅拉省  　　　　　　　
  　　　　　　　 越南廣南省峴港

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB) :   40 m/s ( 13  級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA)  :   40 m/s ( 75 kts )
　美國海軍 (JTWC) :  105 kts ( CAT 3 )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓 : 960  百帕
　七級風半徑    ：  200  公里
　十級風半徑    ：   80 公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
91W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-14N-134.4E

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

ben811018 · 2013-10-7 23:19

強颱丹娜絲北上之後
南方的系統也開始組織起來
目前在西太平洋海域有兩個低壓系統正在發展
未來幾天都有機會成為第25號颱風百合及26號颱風薇帕

目前預估會有一個颱風在下週靠近台灣
並可能伴隨東北季風為北部地區帶來強降雨

今年秋冬遇到共伴降雨的機會很高
北部皮要繃緊了

Rottweiler · 2013-10-8 14:53

二零一二年十月的熱帶氣旋路徑圖

二零一二年九月的熱帶氣旋路徑圖

中秋節已過半個月了,但今年好似幾熱鬧!

天兔賀中秋!

蝴蝶到越南!

菲特逹褔建!

丹娜絲赴韓日!

可能還有????第25號颱風百合及26號颱風薇帕.........靠近台灣!

stan · 2013-10-8 15:34

已經upgrade成為medium了...後續應該關注其移速跟角度方向了~~~

麻友飯 · 2013-10-8 17:32

本帖最後由麻友飯於 2013-10-8 17:34 編輯

EC 20131008 00UTC
+192hrs
超巨型風圈.....
香港西南500公里有烈風了
而計算海平面風速,百合中心風力只屬STS而已
相信是東北季風的功勞

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-8 17:48

老J發布TCFA
預測往菲律賓中部接近

WTPN21 PGTW 080800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
195 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 133.1E TO 14.7N 125.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
080532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
132.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0N
135.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 132.1E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS
OVER AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A RECENT 080308Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLCC IS ELONGATED ALONG
THE EAST-WEST AXIS WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE CIRCULATION, BUT WITH RAIN-FLAGGED STRONGER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK WESTWARD
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090800Z.//
NNNN

martin191919 · 2013-10-8 21:27

GW
WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 15.0N 133.5E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 15.1N 131.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =