1326 薇帕轉溫氣關東雨量破記錄伊豆災情慘重

t02436 · 2013-10-8 00:30

本帖最後由 krichard2011 於 2014-8-27 16:55 編輯

  中度颱風
編號  : 1326 ( 25W )
名稱  : 薇帕 ( WIPHA )

  基本資料
  擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 08 日 00 時
  命名日期       : 2013 年 10 月 11 日 02 時
  消散日期       : 2013 年 10 月 16 日 14 時
  登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB) : 45  m/s ( 14  級 )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA)  :   45  m/s (   90 kts )
　美國海軍 (JTWC) :  115 kts  ( CAT 4 )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓 : 940 百帕
　七級風半徑    ：  300  公里
　十級風半徑    ：  100  公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
92W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.9N-150.7E

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

martin191919 · 2013-10-8 21:34

GW

WTPQ22 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  081200UTC 12.7N 150.9E POOR
MOVE  ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES  1004HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  091200UTC 13.5N 149.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE  WNW SLOWLY
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =

martin191919 · 2013-10-9 07:43

JTWC: MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 082012Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10 KTS) AS WELL AS GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

ktf · 2013-10-9 15:33

數值也差不多一樣,15號下來這波冷空氣非常強大,自然副高已經潰敗
92W也發展的夠大,得力於梯度,風場會相當大

值得一提的是92W將成引爆劑,本身已經夠強的冷空氣配合92W更往南扯
EC報出850,8度都壓到北部沿海(北部地面普遍破20頗容易)

台灣梯度非常大,地面冷高整個南衝,帶來的強風很有看頭
秋季東北季風將更為控制東亞天氣

millerkit31 · 2013-10-9 17:56

ktf 發表於 2013-10-9 15:33
數值也差不多一樣,15號下來這波冷空氣非常強大,自然副高已經潰敗
92W也發展的夠大,得力於梯度,風場會相當大 ...

當這熱低向西北西移動，橫跨呂宋中部後，將進入南海。認同你的說法，進南海後大陸來的北風勢將加大，讓北方冷空氣可乘勢南下，在東北季風的加持下，華南沿岸的風勢於稍後將會加大，氣溫也有機

millerkit31 · 2013-10-9 18:00

ktf 發表於 2013-10-9 15:33
數值也差不多一樣,15號下來這波冷空氣非常強大,自然副高已經潰敗
92W也發展的夠大,得力於梯度,風場會相當大 ...

當這熱低向西北西移動，橫跨呂宋中部後，將進入南海。認同你的說法，進南海後大陸來的北風勢將加大，讓北方冷空氣可乘勢南下，在東北季風的加持下，華南沿岸的風勢於稍後將會加大，香港早上氣溫也有機會試穿20度，這果真應驗了諺語：一場秋雨一場寒。雨方面，大多數於十月中下旬進南海的台風，其雲系大多會在其東北象限出現帶狀雲系，此等雲系普遍厚度相對不太大，以小雨至中雨居多，故估計此低壓系統為華南只會帶來一般的雨量，日雨量應該不易突破150mm吧

t02436 · 2013-10-9 18:28

發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) AND BROAD, ALBEIT BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 090724Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH BROKEN CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS) AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.