17E.Raymond 高低層分離逐漸減弱＊

t02436 · 2013-10-18 11:00

  三級颶風
編號  : 17E
  名稱  : RAYMOND

  基本資料
　擾動編號日期 : 2013 年 10 月 18 日 11 時
　命名日期       : 2013 年 10 月 20 日 16 時
　消散日期       : 2013 年 11 月 02 日 00 時
　登陸地點       : 無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC)： 110 kts ( CAT 3 )
海平面最低氣壓　　：  949 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
96E.INVEST-20kts-1008mb-9.8N-92.5W

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NOAA衛星影像

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436 · 2013-10-19 08:43

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2013-10-19 09:07 編輯

Medium
48Hrs:40%
5Days:60%

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS AREEXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH

krichard2011 · 2013-10-19 19:46

已發布TCFA但結構鬆散
仍須整合 NHC評級上調60%
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N97.2W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 98.4W, APPROXIMATELY 350 NMSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITEIMAGERY INDICATES THAT, ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS STILLSHALLOW, THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDSARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ISESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONEWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

t02436 · 2013-10-20 07:43

100%!!
即將編號命名
1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BEFORMING ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND ADVISORIESWILL LIKELY BE INITIATED THIS EVENING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT5 DAYS. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULDMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLYNORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.