93P 緯度漸高結構轉鬆散

... · 2013-10-18 12:44

  基本資料
編號　　　　：93 P
擾動編號日期：2013 年 10 月 18 日 12  時
消散日期　　：2013 年 10 月 24 日 08  時
登陸地點　　：暫無

93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.7S.177.6W

以上資料來自 : JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

SHYUDOL · 2013-10-20 08:59

沒想到過一夜 94P的對流一直衰弱
而這個對流橫跨南北半球的93P 居然趁機爆對流
也許南太13-14風季第一旋會變它的也說不定哦~

jwpk9899 · 2013-10-20 09:03

另外 FMS也把這隻編號為02F哦~

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Oct 19/2258 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 02.7S 174.9E AT
192100UTC MOVING WEST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 31 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

CONVECTION PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY
IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST THAN
SOUTHWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

krichard2011 · 2013-10-20 12:30

雖然形態變得很佳
但是緯度似乎太低了一點
而且還在偏北移動幾乎快貼近赤道了= =
1.5 S讓我有點傻眼...

krichard2011 · 2013-10-21 18:33

整體形態變得相當不錯
對流猛爆加上良好的螺旋性
看好它成為今年南太風季的首旋...
JTWC也發布TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S
171.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 170.8E, APPROXIMATELY 845 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES WEST OF A
NEAR EQAUTORIAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 15-20 KNOT VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM
TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.