13L.Lorenzo 緯度漸高發展受限＊

krichard2011 · 2013-10-21 12:02

  熱帶風暴
編號：13 L
名稱：Lorenzo

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2013 年 10 月 21 日 12  時
命名日期　　：2013 年 10 月 22 日 05 時
消散日期　　：2013 年 10 月 27 日
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC)：  45   kts
海平面最低氣壓　　：1003 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片

90L.INVEST.25kts.1012mb.26.5N.55.5W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇編輯製作

krichard2011 · 2013-10-21 16:40

NHC升高評級40%
不過FNMOC確定未在墨灣
沒意外的話應該是定位錯誤
1. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THEAREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDAHAS INCREASED AND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEWHOURS. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION ISDEVELOPING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVEDTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVELWINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUMCHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLYNORTHWARD...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.

krichard2011 · 2013-10-21 20:03

NHC評級提升到HIGH了
稍後應該就會發布TCFA了

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITYASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILESEAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONELATER TODAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLEFOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THENEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THEN TURNS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.