95W 近赤對流引爆

t02436 · 2013-12-4 21:58

  基本資料
編號　　　　：95 W
擾動編號日期：2013  年 12 月 04 日 21 時
　消散日期　　：2013  年 12 月 07 日 14 時
　登陸地點       : 無
95W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-2N-148E

開梅 · 2013-12-5 00:17

不知是不是我昨天早上看錯，這個系統日本的氣象廳怎麼說形成颱風楊柳？

t02436 · 2013-12-5 15:07

評級LOW!

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.5N 146.6E, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER A REGION WITH FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 CELSIUS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS CREATING DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.