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95S 登陸減弱中

簽到天數: 498 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2013-12-22 13:58 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
    編號    :95 S
    擾動編號日期:2013 12 22 13
 消散日期  :
2013 00 26 00
 登陸地點  :澳洲北部

95S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.0S-128.0E



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...
哎呀帥神大 最近太忙了沒辦法啊@@  發表於 2013-12-24 17:30
小小一隻結構跟環境都還不是很理想,它是乎盤聚在附近群島上空等它未來移動到更廣的海面上再觀察看看吧。  發表於 2013-12-22 19:21

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參與人數 4水氣能量 +50 收起 理由
abcdefg60317 + 15 贊一個!
帥神 + 5 好久沒看到你搶擾動了
jwpk9899 + 15
king111807 + 15 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 971 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

jwpk9899|2013-12-22 19:43 | 顯示全部樓層
好吧
EC似乎認為他會直接撞進澳洲 不會發展
但是在它撞完 後面會緊接蹦出一支胖子

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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2013-12-23 20:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC以評Low...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5S 129.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 106 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN THE CORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WIND BARBS SURROUNDING THE
CENTER, WHICH IS CORRESPONDING TO AN OBSERVATION REPORT FROM POINT
FAWCETT STATION. DARWIN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 230847Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MARGINAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


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簽到天數: 815 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-24 12:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2013-12-24 12:13 編輯

BOM
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Name:  
Tropical Low

Details:
Time (WST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am December 24tropical low12.2S128.3E55
+6hr2 pm December 24tropical low12.5S128.2E80
+12hr8 pm December 24tropical low12.9S128.0E100
+18hr2 am December 25tropical low13.3S127.9E125
+24hr8 am December 25113.7S127.7E145
+36hr8 pm December 25tropical low14.6S126.9E180
+48hr8 am December 26tropical low15.0S125.2E220
+60hr8 pm December 26tropical low14.6S122.9E255
+72hr8 am December 27tropical low14.4S120.8E290


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簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2013-12-24 18:02 | 顯示全部樓層
升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 129.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DARWIN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BUT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 240050Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE SAME STR IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

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簽到天數: 815 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-24 20:06 | 顯示全部樓層
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0801 UTC 24/12/2013
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.4S
Longitude: 128.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 75 nm [140 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1200: 12.7S 128.3E:     035 [070]:  025  [045]: 1002
+12:  24/1800: 13.1S 128.2E:     050 [090]:  030  [055]:  999
+18:  25/0000: 13.5S 128.0E:     060 [115]:  040  [075]:  994
+24:  25/0600: 14.0S 127.6E:     075 [135]:  040  [075]:  994
+36:  25/1800: 14.9S 125.7E:     095 [175]:  030  [055]: 1001
+48:  26/0600: 15.0S 123.5E:     115 [210]:  030  [055]: 1000
+60:  26/1800: 15.1S 122.1E:     135 [245]:  030  [055]: 1000
+72:  27/0600: 15.0S 120.4E:     150 [280]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  28/0600: 15.9S 120.1E:     195 [365]:  050  [095]:  988
+120: 29/0600: 17.2S 117.8E:     285 [525]:  070  [130]:  973
REMARKS:
Current position is fair, based on animated visible imagery and Berrimah radar.

Initial classification of 1.5 was assigned at around 23/18Z. During the last 6
hours, Dvorak analysis has been based on curved band pattern with 0.2-0.3 wrap,
also giving a DT of 1.5. Convection has persisted today throughout the diurnal
minimum.

Visible and microwave images over the last 24 hours have depicted that this is a
small circulation. The low is located favourable under the upper level ridge and
in combination with an approaching mid latitude trough to the west, there is
good equatorward and poleward outflow. The low is surrounded by deep moist air.
CIMSS vertical wind shear at 06Z was 10-15kt northerly, which has explained why
the deeper convection during the last 6-12 hours has been displaced southwards
of the LLCC.

The low is expected to take a south to southwesterly track under the influence
of a mid level ridge to the east.A number of models depict a weaker system and
therefore move the low in a more SW to W track under the influence of a lower
lever ridge to the S.

Given that this is a small system in a favourable environment, a development of
1 to 1.5 T numbers per day is expected. It possible TC intensity will be reached
by 24/18Z or 25/00Z, near the north Kimberley coast. The system should then
weaken below cyclone intensity later on Wednesday as it crosses the coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

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簽到天數: 815 天

[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-24 23:31 | 顯示全部樓層
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1341 UTC 24/12/2013
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 128.5E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [136 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1800: 13.0S 128.5E:     040 [080]:  030  [055]: 1000
+12:  25/0000: 13.3S 128.4E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]: 1000
+18:  25/0600: 13.7S 128.0E:     065 [125]:  035  [065]:  998
+24:  25/1200: 14.0S 127.6E:     080 [145]:  035  [065]:  998
+36:  26/0000: 14.5S 125.3E:     100 [180]:  025  [045]: 1005
+48:  26/1200: 14.5S 123.4E:     130 [240]:  025  [045]: 1004
+60:  27/0000: 14.3S 121.9E:     170 [315]:  025  [045]: 1003
+72:  27/1200: 14.5S 120.9E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  28/1200: 16.1S 118.8E:     200 [370]:  055  [100]:  986
+120: 29/1200: 17.8S 115.8E:     290 [535]:  075  [140]:  970
REMARKS:
Current position is fair, based on animated infrared imagery and supplemented by
microwave imagery.

Initial classification of 1.5 was assigned at around 23/18Z. During the day,
convection persisted through the diurnal minimum with a DT of 1.5 maintained,
based on a curved band pattern with a 0.2-0.3 wrap.  During the last 6 hours,
deep convection has diminished considerably with structure harder to identify.
Based on latest infrared imagery a DT of 1.5 was assigned on a 0.2-0.3 wrap,
however a FT of 1.0 based on the MET was used.  The CI has been held at 1.5.

Visible and microwave images over the last 24 hours have depicted that this is a
small circulation. The low is located in a favourable environment under the
upper level ridge and in combination with an approaching mid latitude trough to
the west there is good equatorward and poleward outflow. The low is surrounded
by deep moist air. CIMSS vertical wind shear at 06Z was 10-15kt northerly, which
has explained why the deeper convection during the last 6-12 hours has been
displaced southwards of the LLCC.

The low is expected be slow moving over the next 6-12 hours before taking a
south to southwesterly track under the influence of a mid level ridge to the
east. There is significant variation between models in the structure of the
system after crossing the Kimberley coast into the Indian Ocean, due to
differences in modelling the interactions of the system with a weak low near
Indonesia.

Given that this is a small system in a favourable environment, a development of
1 to 1.5 T numbers per day is expected. It is possible TC intensity will be
reached by 25/06Z or 25/12Z, near the north Kimberley coast. The system should
then weaken below cyclone intensity later on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as it crosses the coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.                               
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[LV.10]以壇為家III

martin191919|2013-12-25 12:12 | 顯示全部樓層
Name:  Tropical Low

Details:

Time (WST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)
Longitude
(decimal deg.)
Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am December 25tropical low13.4S128.3E75
+6hr2 pm December 25tropical low13.9S128.2E95
+12hr8 pm December 25114.4S127.6E120
+18hr2 am December 26tropical low14.7S126.9E140
+24hr8 am December 26tropical low14.7S126.1E165
+36hr8 pm December 26tropical low15.1S123.5E200
+48hr8 am December 27tropical low14.4S121.6E235
+60hr8 pm December 27tropical low14.3S121.2E275
+72hr8 am December 28114.7S120.8E310


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