jsd6660

  輕度颱風
   編號：1412 ( 12 W )
   名稱：娜克莉( Nakri )

  基本資料  
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 17 日 06 時
    命名日期　　：2014 年 07 月 30 日 02 時
    消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 04 日 02 時
    登陸地點　　：無
  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB)：  28  m/s (   10  級  )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：  30  m/s (   55  kt  )←最大風速
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：   40  kts   (    TS    )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓：   980   百帕
　七級風半徑　　：   150   公里
　十級風半徑　　：     -      公里
  過去路徑圖  

  討論帖圖片  
96W-INVEST.20kts-1007mb-9.0N-133.2E


以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

jsd6660

現在的太平洋真是熱鬧無比～
從左至右為09W 93W 94W 96W 95W 01C 一字排開

甜心

[嗯嗯同意各位大大的感覺目前西北太平洋海域的確好熱鬧，話說回來這隻剛生不久的擾動低壓是一隻超大的低壓baby呢不看起來很有氣勢就是了。

t02436

編號後對流消消長長
JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N 150.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 97 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 190343Z NOAA-19 MICROWAVE
IMAGE ALSO REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. AN OLDER 182321Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A
WEAK, ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (15 TO 20 KNOT) OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

目前整體有一定的螺旋性
對流尚可但還有待發展




短期內還是偏西移動
數值看好發展
路徑先看看就好

t02436

JMA升格T.D.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 151E WNW SLOWLY.

t02436

升評Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.9N
150.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 149.4E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
PASSES, INCLUDING A 191119Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL IMPROVED
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A
191118Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH 25 KNOT
WIND BARBS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DUAL
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

數值持續看好發展

ts03425549

入夜後96W對流也開始爆發摟 目前正在偏西快速通過關島南方海域  從雷達上看東風波性質明顯 低層中心螺旋性也還有待加強 來看看今晚對流爆發後窩度有法+深   EC.GFS等數值對此系統也都有反應  搞不好會有雙旋共舞產生唷!!

ts03425549

96W  窩度這6小時+深明顯 以泛紅摟