1413 金娜薇史上第七個東太跨洋旋

t02436 · 2014-7-21 00:01

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-8-15 18:24 編輯

  四級颶風/強烈颱風
  編號：1413 ( 07 E )
  名稱：金娜薇 ( Genevieve )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 07 月 20 日 23  時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 07 月 25 日 17  時
　             　　　2014 年 08 月 07 日 14  時 ( 移交JMA發報 )
　消散日期　　：2014 年 08 月 14 日 20  時
　登陸地點　　：無
  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速
　  國家颶風中心 (NHC)　  　：  40 kts  (    TS    )
　  中太平洋颶風中心 (CPHC)： 115 kts  ( CAT.4  )
　  中央氣象局 (CWB)　  　：  55 m/s ( 16  級 )
　  日本氣象廳 (JMA) 　  　：  55 m/s (  110 kt )
　  美國海軍 (JTWC)  　  　    ： 140  kts  ( CAT.5 )

　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　 海平面最低氣壓：  910 百帕
　七級風半徑　　：  200 公里
　十級風半徑　　： 80    公里

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
91E.INVEST-20kts-1008mb-9.2N-108.3W

NOAA-RGB連續動畫(Youtube)

以上資料來自 : NHC、CPHC、CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436 · 2014-7-21 00:08

昨天下午評級Low

1. A small area of disturbed weather located about 750 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

CX723-A330 · 2014-7-23 12:23

提高評級至medium
預料5日後會是high

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of
low pressure located about 1125 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system during the next few
days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

t02436 · 2014-7-23 16:55

NHC提升評級至High
同時展望中提到五日內將有機會出現大量擾動

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have become better organized this evening.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development
and this system is expected to become a tropical depression during
the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it moves westward into the
central Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some development of
this system is expected over the weekend while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Yet another area of low pressure could form during the next couple
of days several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible by the weekend while it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

對流較先前改善有稍微擁有螺旋性

howard2639 · 2014-7-24 01:09

JTWC已對其發佈TCFA了~

krichard2011 · 2014-7-25 10:04

對流大致覆蓋在LLCC上方
算是個滿小的系統
目前除南北風切偏強所在環境風切大致不強
只要能穩定向西移動發展機會應該是不低
目前風速也來到30KT稍後NHC應該有機會升格熱低

t02436 · 2014-7-25 16:56

NHC跳過TD直接命名GENEVIEVE
巔峰上望40KT
預計還是有機會跨越140W進入中太

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W 35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W 40 KT  45 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W 40 KT  45 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W 40 KT  45 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W 35 KT  40 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W 30 KT  35 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W 30 KT  35 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W 25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW