05L.Dolly 中心登陸持續減弱

t02436 · 2014-8-30 09:08

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-5 16:32 編輯

  熱帶風暴
編號：05 L
名稱  : Dolly

  基本資料
擾動編號日期：2014 年 08 月 30 日 09 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 09 月 01 日 14 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 09 月 04 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：墨西哥尤卡坦半島
                              墨西哥塔毛利帕斯州坦皮科

  巔峰時期資料
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC) ： 45    kts  (  TS  )
海平面最低氣壓       ： 1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖

  討論帖圖片
99L.INVEST-20kts-1008mb-15.1N-80.2W

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

krichard2011 · 2014-9-1 16:55

NHC 升評至HIGH 60%
不過整體對流仍相當鬆散還有待整合...

A broad area of low pressure located south of Campeche on the
western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of
showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system is showing signs of
organization while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and
development of a tropical depression will be possible when the
center of the disturbance moves over the warm waters of the Bay of
Campeche later today and into Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will
produce heavy rainfall across the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern
Mexico today and Tuesday, and across portions of eastern mainland
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

t02436 · 2014-9-2 00:27

美國海軍發布TCFA
中心已經重新出海

底層無起色
對流發展受到地形影響

數值普遍支持發展
SST超過30度

現在正在進行第一次飛機實測
即將進入定位中心

編號AF309 01GGA實測即時數據自動更新(實測結束連結自動失效)

t02436 · 2014-9-2 08:39

NHC 21Z 升格05L
上望40KT 預測兩天內登陸

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W 25 KT  30 MPH
12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W 30 KT  35 MPH
24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W 35 KT  40 MPH
36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W 40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

t02436 · 2014-9-2 14:14

NHC加發報命名Dolly
看來又是實測命名

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM DOLLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMEPECHE...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 94.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...360 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
RE-LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA BUOY DATA NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. DOLLY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND
DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR
45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...
MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS
POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY TONIGHT.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

Meow · 2014-9-2 23:04

最大風速 45 節了，可是還未達到巔峰，等會就登陸。

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W 45 KT  50 MPH
12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W 50 KT  60 MPH
24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W 40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W 25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

shadow16 · 2014-9-3 22:35

本帖最後由 shadow16 於 2014-9-3 22:40 編輯

登陸了
降格為TD

Tropical Depression DOLLY

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL052014
700 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

...DOLLY WEAKENING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 98.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM WSW OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.8 WEST. DOLLY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
EASTERN MEXICO TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
TAMAULIPAS AND NUEVO LEON...AS WELL AS NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND EASTERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  THIS RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH