krichard2011

  輕度颱風  
   編號：1414 ( 13 W )
   名稱： 風神 ( Fengshen )

  基本資料   
    擾動編號日期：2014 年 09 月 03 日 07 時
    命名日期　　：2014 年 09 月 07 日 08 時
　轉化日期　　：2014 年 09 月 10 日 14 時

巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB)：  30  m/s (   11 級  )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：  30  m/s (   55 KT )
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：   60  kts   (    TS     )


　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓： 980 百帕
　七級風半徑　　： 120 公里
　十級風半徑　　：  50  公里
  過去路徑圖


  討論帖圖片  
91W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.4N-135.7E


  衛星動畫合輯

中央氣象局
NOAA SSD

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

陳俊閔

這是一個新的擾動西北太洋終於開始活躍後續動態也要特別注意。

t02436

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1N 136.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 142 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 030103Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY BROADLY WRAPPING TOWARDS THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

早上風場掃到25-30節
LLCC不明顯

t02436

13Z提升評級至Medium

  THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
136.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.2E, APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT
FLARING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LLCC. A
031023Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY A
TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH SUSTAINING THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION,
AS EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ALSO ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JTWC再降評Low

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.3N
135.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. A 040129Z ASCAT PASS AND
JTWC SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING OF WEAK (05-15
KNOT) WINDS IN THE AREA, BUT NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS TURNING IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE
CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD
CHANNEL. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DIFFLUENT CONDITIONS
ALOFT ARE HELPING TO FUEL THE DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

JTWC跟SSD分析都找不到LLCC

TXPQ27 KNES 040314
TCSWNP
CCA

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91W)  
B.  04/0232Z
C.  11.8N
D.  130.9E
E.  FIVE/MTSAT  
F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO LACK OF  
DISCERNIBLE CLOSED LLCC.  POSITION IS BASED ON MIX OF CLOUD  SYSTEM
CENTER ALONG A SHEAR AXIS.  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS A  
T1.0 IS WARRANTED.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL  

...LIDDICK  
=======================================================
TPPN11 PGTW  040315
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF PALAU)
B. 04/0232Z
C. XX.X  
D. XXX.X
E. N/A/MTSAT
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS:  POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD  NOT
BE FOUND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   03/2301Z  13.5N   133.7E  SSMS
   04/0041Z  13.4N  134.0E  MMHS
   LONG

t02436

再度重回Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N
129.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF MID-LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG BOTH
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A 041808Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS AND 041235Z ASCAT PASS INFERS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY LOCATED WELL NORTH OF WHERE IT PREVIOUSLY WAS POSITIONED.  
WHILE NO DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EVIDENT, BASED ON
ASCAT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE
15-20 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTH PROVIDING A POLEWARD CHANNEL. ADDITIONALLY, GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE FUELING THE DEEP
CONVECTION NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

JTWC重新分析T1.0

TPPN11 PGTW 042133
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91W (N OF PALAU)
B. 04/2032Z
C. 17.2N
D. 129.9E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/21HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET
AGREES; PT WAS 1.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/1747Z  17.5N  131.1E  MMHS
   LONG

Meow

JMA 已經先在 09Z 升格它為熱低。