93W 短暫發展對流消散

t02436 · 2014-9-6 09:00

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-7 10:20 編輯

基本資料
編號　　　　：93 W
擾動編號日期：2014 年 09 月 06 日 05 時
　消散日期　　：2014 年 09 月 07 日 08 時

93W.INVEST-15kts-1010mb-24.5N-155.6E

t02436 · 2014-9-6 13:12

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-9-6 13:14 編輯

JTWC評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.6N 154.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 737 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MSI DEPICTS FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFINED LLCC. A 060310Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS WEAK AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY
WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC. AN OLDER 052355Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK
05 TO 10 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
(05 TO 15 KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

PGTW(JTWC)分析T1.0

TPPN12 PGTW 060330
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NE OF MARIANAS ISLANDS)
B. 06/0232Z
C. 25.1N
D. 155.2E
E. SIX/MTSAT
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES WITH DT WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/2303Z  24.6N  154.8E  MMHS
05/2356Z  24.3N  154.8E  MMHS
SCHALIN