TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2014
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located about 1300 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development of this disturbance during
the next several days while it moves westward or west-northwestward
at around 10 to 15 mph, and enters the central Pacific basin by
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
CPHC 升評 HIGH
整體對流也有開始往內聚集 螺旋性也相當不錯
GFS大致支持成旋
有滿高的機會可能會撲向夏威夷...
1. There has been little change in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface low centered about 1125 miles east southeast of Hilo, Hawaii since this afternoon. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, which is moving toward the west at about 10 mph, and a tropical depression may form in this area on Monday or Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.
在補上JTWC的TCFA圖與報文
REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.6N 140.1W,
APPROXIMATELY 990 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE WHILE FORMATIVE,
ALBEIT BROKEN, BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO FLARE. A 130016Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS LIMITED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROCEEDS TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
提升卡
千斤頂
照妖鏡
