t02436

  強烈颱風  
   編號：1420  ( 20 W )
   名稱： 鸚鵡  ( Nuri )



  基本資料  
　擾動編號日期：2014 年 10 月 28 日 12 時
　命名日期　　：2014 年 10 月 31 日 14 時
　轉化日期　　：2014 年 11 月 07 日 08 時
　登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速
　中央氣象局 (CWB)： 55  m/s  (   16  級  )
　日本氣象廳 (JMA)：  55  m/s  (  110 kt  )
　美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：155  kts   (  CAT.5  )
                                                   
　最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
　海平面最低氣壓： 910  百帕
　七級風半徑　　： 250  公里
　十級風半徑　　： 100  公里

    轉化後最低氣壓：920  百帕

  過去路徑圖  




  討論帖圖片  
96W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12.5N.150.5E

以上資料來自 : CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

應該是為了關島，擾動才編一小時就讓 JTWC 評級 Low。:lol

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 150.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT
IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE. A 272332Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
(10 TO 15 KNOTS) LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO
15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

甜心

甜心

ben811018

GFS最新預測~
後期將遇到冷高壓東移跟鋒面活動
路徑變數不小

正宜27

補Medium報文THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
145.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED,
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A RECENT 300031Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE
DEFINED WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP THE
SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS, BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jtwc : TCFA

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N
140.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD, BUT QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 300031Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS REVEALED AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WHILE A 300711Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THE BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE
DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM PROCEEDS WEST. DUE TO THE
CONTINUALLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND MODEL DEVELOPMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Meow

黃蜂轉化 16 天半以後，西北太平洋終於迎接新的熱帶氣旋。



TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 12N 138E WEST SLOWLY.

zjk369

HKO:
一 個 低 壓 區 正 為 菲 律 賓 以 東 海 域 帶 來 不 穩 定 的 天 氣 。