Meow

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋 / 強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：04U / 04-20142015 (95S → 04S)
名稱：Kate

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2014 年 12 月 23 日 01 時
命名日期　　：2014 年 12 月 24 日 20 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 03 日 14 時
登陸地點　    ：無

  巔峰時期資料  
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：90 kt
法國氣象局 (MFR)：95 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：105 kt ( CAT.3 )
海平面最低氣壓　：947 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  
95S.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.9.3S.99.3E


以上資料來自：BoM、MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

澳洲看好前景，認為即將命名並在兩天後成為三級強烈熱帶氣旋。

jwpk9899

BoM命名Kate

Meow

命名報應該要多貼一點東西，況且這是本風季首個澳洲命名的風暴，也可能增強到三級強烈強熱帶氣旋。





IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1310 UTC 24/12/2014
Name: Tropical Cyclone Kate
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.9S
Longitude: 98.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1800: 11.1S  97.8E:     040 [080]:  040  [075]:  997
+12:  25/0000: 11.3S  97.2E:     055 [100]:  050  [095]:  991
+18:  25/0600: 11.8S  96.7E:     065 [125]:  050  [095]:  991
+24:  25/1200: 12.2S  96.3E:     080 [145]:  055  [100]:  988
+36:  26/0000: 12.5S  96.0E:     100 [180]:  060  [110]:  983
+48:  26/1200: 13.0S  95.8E:     120 [220]:  065  [120]:  978
+60:  27/0000: 13.5S  95.6E:     140 [255]:  065  [120]:  979
+72:  27/1200: 14.1S  95.3E:     155 [290]:  065  [120]:  979
+96:  28/1200: 15.6S  94.5E:     200 [370]:  060  [110]:  983
+120: 29/1200: 17.3S  93.5E:     290 [535]:  045  [085]:  994
REMARKS:
System was located using visible satellite imagery and microwave. Recent motion
has been towards the west southwest at 10 knots, towards the Cocos Keeling
Islands.

Dvorak: 0.7 curved band wrap over the last few images gave a DT of 3.0. MET/PAT
is 3.0 with a D- trend. FT/CI is 3.0 with intensity set to 35 knots [10 minute
averaged winds]. NESDIS ADT CI 3.7 at 0530 UTC.

The system has been named tropical cyclone Kate. CIMSS shear indicated east
northeast shear around 15 knots.

The environment remains reasonably conducive for development with upper poleward
outflow, warm SSTs and moist monsoonal flow.

West southwest motion should continue under the influence of a weak mid level
ridge. The system will pass close to the Cocos Keeling Islands during the
afternoon on 25 December with a period of storm force winds possible. A more
southerly track is forecast from Friday due to the passage of an upper level
trough. The system is forecast to intensifying at about the standard rate [1 T
no. a day], reaching category 3 [hurricane intensity] at 261200 UTC.

In the longer term increasing shear and cooler SSTs will cause the system to
weaken from late 28 December.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

Meow

澳洲分析 3.0 了，JTWC 竟然才分析 1.5，而且還把 Kate 放上去了。:L

TPXS10 PGTW 241507

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95S (KATE)

B. 24/1430Z

C. 11.33S

D. 97.87E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.5 DT. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   24/1019Z  10.95S  98.82E  SSMS


   BERMEA

Meow

命名一天以來只微幅增強，BoM 也不再預期強熱帶氣旋了。

krichard2011

底層風眼已經建立出來了
順利的話 過不久風眼應該即將開啟...
CDO也相當圓潤
算是南半球風季開始以來 結構最好的一隻

Meow

升格三級強烈熱帶氣旋，高層風眼逐漸成型。



IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0707 UTC 26/12/2014
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Kate
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.3S
Longitude: 94.5E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [258 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  26/1200: 12.6S  94.3E:     025 [050]:  065  [120]:  976
+12:  26/1800: 12.9S  94.1E:     040 [070]:  070  [130]:  971
+18:  27/0000: 13.3S  93.9E:     050 [095]:  075  [140]:  967
+24:  27/0600: 13.5S  93.6E:     065 [120]:  075  [140]:  967
+36:  27/1800: 14.1S  93.1E:     085 [155]:  065  [120]:  976
+48:  28/0600: 14.8S  92.7E:     105 [190]:  055  [100]:  983
+60:  28/1800: 15.4S  92.2E:     120 [225]:  045  [085]:  990
+72:  29/0600: 16.2S  91.4E:     140 [265]:  035  [065]:  996
+96:  30/0600: 18.2S  89.1E:     185 [345]:  030  [055]: 1001
+120: 31/0600: 20.6S  85.9E:     275 [505]:  030  [055]:  999
REMARKS:
Kate was located using visible and microwave imagery.

Over the last few hours an eye has emerged on visible imagery. The precursor to
this was deep convection wrapping around the centre on the tc_ssmis microwave
image at 0115 UTC. Prior to this the AMSR2 at 1900 UTC and SSMI at 2041 UTC
showed deep convection wrapping about half way around the centre in the western
semi circle.

Dvorak: Eye pattern using visible imagery gave DTs of 5.0. Prior to the eye
emerging, the CDO pattern gave DTs of 4.0. Time averaged DT is 4.5. MET was 4.5
using a D+ trend with PAT 4.5. FT/CI set to 4.5 with intensity 65 knots [10
minute averaged winds]. This means that Dvorak constraints have been broken for
this small system [FT change over 6 hours]. SATCON intensity at 252325 UTC was
62 knots. ADT had CI between 3.7 and 3.8.

ASCAT at 0241 UTC showed 50-55 knot winds near the centre.

Shear over the system has decreased allowing for intensification into a category
3 cyclone [hurricane force winds]. CIMSS shear at 00 UTC was about NE 10 knots.

Kate may intensify a little further during the diurnally favourable overnight
period. Increasing shear, cooler SSTs and lower ocean heat potential should
cause the system to weaken on 27/28 December.

The system has tracked towards the west southwest over the past 6 hours and
should maintain a general southwest track for the next 72 hours.

Gales may persist in the southern semi-circle for a period after the system
weakens below cyclone intensity during 29 December.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 26/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.