t02436

  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號：06-20142015 ( 06 S )
名稱：Chedza




  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 01 月 12 日 04 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 01 月 16 日 08 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 01 月 21 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加 穆龍達瓦

  巔峰時期資料  
法國氣象局 (MFR)：55 kt
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：50 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓    ：975 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
暫無

  討論帖圖片  
93S.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.15.3S.39.7E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

MFR 06Z編號擾動區6號首報預報將以40KT 登陸馬達加斯加

ZCZC 113
WTIO30 FMEE 140713
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20142015
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER  6
2.A POSITION 2015/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 39.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE    DECIMAL
SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/14 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2015/01/15 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2015/01/15 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/01/16 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/01/16 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 45.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
72H: 2015/01/17 06 UTC: 20.8 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
AFTER BEING BACK OVER SEAS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SYSTEM TAKES BENEFIT
OF AN EFFICIENT MONSOON FLOW EQUATORWARD.
THE LOW/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWS ON MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
ANIMATION AN IMPROVING ORGANIZATION.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING NEAR THE CENTRE BUT LARGE
SCALE THUNDERY ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCES.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ITS NORTH,
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER GOOD IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR UNDER THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS HOWEVER VERY
LIMITED.
SYSTEM SHOULD REGULARLY INTENSIFY UNTIL ITS LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN
MADAGASCAR SHORELINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
SOME OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THAT THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD RESIST TO THE CROSSING PATH OVER MADAGASCAR AND TO
EXTEND UP TO DOWN  TO REFORM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVERSEA EAST
OF MADAGASCAR THIS WEEK-END.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.=
NNNN

JTWC評級Low

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.7S
38.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 37.5E, APPROXIMATELY 556 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER STRADDLING THE
COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE MSI AND A 131426Z NOOA-19 MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO REVEAL THE LLCC IS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TURNING THAT SPANS
ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

整體還有待整合....

krichard2011

念書之餘 也要來追一下風
JTWC 稍早已經發布 TCFA
螺旋性相當漂亮 不排除有近岸爆發的機會
而且目前 GFS 支持穿過馬達加斯加後發展

t02436

MFR命名Chedza
預報以強熱帶風暴登陸馬達加斯加島

ZCZC 457
WTIO30 FMEE 160054
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/6/20142015
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  6  (CHEDZA)
2.A POSITION 2015/01/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 43.4 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE    DECIMAL
FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 240 SW: 220 NW: 300
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/01/16 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 44.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/01/17 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
36H: 2015/01/17 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISTURBANCE
48H: 2015/01/18 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
60H: 2015/01/18 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/01/19 00 UTC: 22.0 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/01/20 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2015/01/21 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 54.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
1913Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER A LARGE PART
OF CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
DVORAK SIGNATURE CONFIRMS THAT MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE HAS
PROBABLY BEEN REACHED AND CHEDZA HAS THERFORE BEEN NAMED BY THE
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF MADAGASCAR.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVELS NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
IN ITS NORTH, SYSTEM IS GLOBALLY TRACKING EASTWARDS SINCE 12Z.
CHEDZA IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IN A MODERATE
SHEARED AREA AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION IS MAINLY LINKED TO A VERY GOOD LOW/MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON ITS BOTH EDGES, HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENTS OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT ABOUT 29/30 DG AND A VERY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT SUSTAINED BY THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET.
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AND A GRADUAL BUT SLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS
THEREFORE FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN
MADAGASCAR COASTLINE IN THE AREA OF THE TSIRIBIHINA RIVER ESTUARY
(BETWEEN TAMBOHORANI AND BELO-SUR-MER).
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION COULD RESIST TO THE CROSSING PATH OVER MADAGASCAR AND
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD RE-DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM GET
BACK OVERSEA ON THE SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL BY THAT TIME
EXPERIENCING A MODERATE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
HOWEVER WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AND IN THE SAME DIRECTION THAN THE
SYSTEM'S MOTION,
BUT AS IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BEFORE THE LANDFALL, IN A VERY GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENVIRONMENT OVER FAVOURABLE HEAT OCEANIC
CONTENTS AND SUSTAINED BY AN EFFICIENT POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
ECMWF AND GFS NWP MODELS SUGGEST A GRADUAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON
A EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK AT FIRST.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES IN THE SOUTH AND
CHEDZA IN THEN EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS AND TO KEEP
ON INTENSIFY.=
NNNN

JTWC升格06S

Meow

之前在東非陸地的時候造成馬拉威 48 人死亡。:dizzy:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-30805498

蜜露

環境很好,增強很快..只快過了莫三海峽. 就已經快要中颱了
出海後還看好重新發展

t02436

昨天晚間登陸馬達加斯加Morondava
減弱為熱帶低壓
MFR預料進入南印度洋後會再次重新發展

補18Z報文

** WTIO21 FMEE 161852 ***
METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BMS MARINE LE 16/01/2015 A 1800 UTC.
NUMERO: 011/6 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN)

VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT)
(LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT
MOYEN).
PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(VALEUR INDICATIVE)

AVERTISSEMENT
DEBUT DE VALIDITE: VENDREDI 16/01/2015 A 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 6  (EX-CHEDZA)  0
POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.5 S / 44.9 E
(VINGT DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUARANTE QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST) A 1800 UTC
DEPLACEMENT:  EST-SUD-EST 12 KT

ZONES MENACEES:
TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQUE
200 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.
COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER TRES FORTE A GROSSE DANS UN RAYON DE 70
MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, SEULEMENT SUR MER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN
AUTOUR DU CENTRE, SEULEMENT SUR MER DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST.
FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS.
PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES:
A 12H POUR LE 17/01/2015 A 06 UTC:
21.6 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX = 0 , DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
A 24H POUR LE 17/01/2015 A 18 UTC:
21.8 S / 50.3 E, VENT MAX = 30 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE

INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES :
NEANT=

t02436