krichard2011

  三級強烈熱帶氣旋  
   編號  : 16 U ( 19 S )
   名稱  : Olwyn


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 03 月 10 日 00 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 03 月 11 日 15 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 03 月 14 日 22 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 西澳洲

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：85 kts ( CAT.2 )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：80 kts ( CAT.3 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：960 百帕

  討論帖圖片  
96S.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-16.0S-114.0E


以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436

JTWC直接評級Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.0S 115.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF ROWLEY SHOALS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH
FLARING CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
100209Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND A 100124 ASCAT SHOWS CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE
IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD OUTFLOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA BEYOND TAU 56. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

BoM上望澳式C2
準18U即將誕生


展望報文

IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:29 pm WST on Tuesday 10 March 2015
for the period until midnight WST Friday 13 March 2015.

Existing Cyclones in the  Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:  



Tropical Cyclone Advices are current for a developing tropical low off the
Pilbara coast. At 11am WST Tuesday a developing tropical low was located around
760 kilometres north of Karratha, 900 kilometres north of Exmouth. Please refer
to the latest Advice or Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map for further
details. www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday       High      
Thursday        High      
Friday          High      


There are no other significant lows in the Western Region and none are expected
within the next three days.

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.

甜心

:o這隻結構跟風場都不錯緯度也不算太高，雖然有點太靠近陸地了但未來還是小有發展性。

不過路徑方面未來可能就要苦了住在西澳地區的民眾了，因為從預未來測路徑圖目前看來它是乎很可能會直接侵襲澳洲西部。

CX723-A330

老J發TCFA

t02436

BoM編號16U
登陸前有望達到二級熱帶氣旋

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0200 UTC 11/03/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 115.9E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [201 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/0600: 16.4S 115.5E:     050 [095]:  025  [045]: 1003
+12:  11/1200: 16.9S 115.4E:     065 [120]:  030  [055]: 1001
+18:  11/1800: 17.7S 115.3E:     075 [140]:  030  [055]: 1001
+24:  12/0000: 18.4S 114.9E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  995
+36:  12/1200: 20.3S 114.5E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  991
+48:  13/0000: 22.4S 113.9E:     130 [235]:  050  [095]:  987
+60:  13/1200: 24.9S 114.1E:     150 [275]:  040  [075]:  993
+72:  14/0000: 28.2S 115.3E:     165 [310]:  030  [055]: 1000
+96:  15/0000: 34.8S 121.8E:     210 [390]:  025  [045]: 1000
+120: 16/0000: 36.6S 128.9E:     300 [555]:  025  [045]:  998
REMARKS:
The system has developed in the last 24 hours within an area of low vertical
shear. CMISS has the vertical shear around 10-20 knots.  The Dvorak analysis has
a FT/CI of 1.5.

Model guidance is very consistent with the system forecast to move in a south to
southwest direction over the next 48 hours, into an area of decreasing vertical
shear. With SSTs around 30C the environment for development is favourable.

The development the system is likely to peak at a category 2 intensity. The
shear is forecast to increase over the system when it reaches the west Pilbara
coast on Friday.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

t02436

JTWC升19S
BoM升一級熱帶氣旋並命名Olwyn
維持上望二級熱帶氣旋

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 11/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olwyn
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 116.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 60 nm [110 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm [110 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  11/1200: 16.8S 116.0E:     050 [095]:  035  [065]:  999
+12:  11/1800: 17.3S 115.8E:     065 [120]:  040  [075]:  997
+18:  12/0000: 18.0S 115.5E:     075 [140]:  040  [075]:  997
+24:  12/0600: 19.0S 115.1E:     090 [165]:  045  [085]:  994
+36:  12/1800: 21.0S 114.7E:     110 [200]:  055  [100]:  986
+48:  13/0600: 23.4S 114.3E:     130 [235]:  055  [100]:  985
+60:  13/1800: 26.1S 115.0E:     150 [275]:  035  [065]:  999
+72:  14/0600: 30.5S 117.4E:     165 [310]:  030  [055]: 1003
+96:  15/0600: 35.1S 123.9E:     210 [390]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 16/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
A monsoonal surge has rapidly developed the system in the last few hours. ASCAT
has 30-40 knots around the centre, in the northern and eastern quadrants. The
intensity of the system is biased towards the ASCAT winds. The system has
developed within an area of low vertical shear. CMISS has the vertical shear
around 10-20 knots.  

The Dvorak analysis has a DT 3.0 with a curved band of 0.7 wrap. FT/CI are
constrained to 2.5, with the system 24 hrs ago T1.0 or less.

Model guidance is very consistent with the system forecast to move in a south to
southwest direction over the next 48 hours, into an area of decreasing vertical
shear. With SSTs around 30C the environment for development is favourable.

The development of the system is forecast to peak at a top end category 2
intensity. The shear will increase over the system when it reaches the west
Pilbara coast on Friday.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

t02436

BoM升級二級熱帶氣旋
登陸前強度將有機會會達到強烈熱帶氣旋等級

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0147 UTC 12/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olwyn
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.3S
Longitude: 115.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 190 nm [350 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  12/0600: 19.2S 114.6E:     055 [105]:  060  [110]:  982
+12:  12/1200: 20.3S 114.3E:     070 [130]:  070  [130]:  974
+18:  12/1800: 21.3S 114.0E:     080 [150]:  080  [150]:  965
+24:  13/0000: 22.5S 113.8E:     095 [175]:  070  [130]:  973
+36:  13/1200: 25.1S 114.1E:     115 [210]:  045  [085]:  992
+48:  14/0000: 28.7S 115.4E:     135 [245]:  040  [075]:  995
+60:  14/1200: 33.3S 118.6E:     155 [285]:  025  [045]: 1004
+72:  15/0000: 36.7S 121.5E:     170 [320]:  030  [055]:  998
+96:  16/0000: 37.3S 128.0E:     215 [400]:  030  [055]:  996
+120: 17/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Olwyn was located using recent IR and microwave imagery.

Dvorak: Curved band analysis on EIR gives a wrap of 0.8 and a DT of 3.5. MET was
3.5 based on a D+ trend. 0030Z image shows an eye emerging in both VIS and IR.
These images yield DT4.0 based on eye analysis. FT/CI set to 3.5 with intensity
of 50 knots [10 minute mean winds]. This is in good agreement with ADT and
available SATCON but given the continuing intensification evident in microwave
and IR it is possible the current intensity is slightly higher.

CIMSS shear analysis at 18 UTC indicated shear between 5 and 10 knots. Shear is
low over a broad region. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.Ocean
heat content is high. The environment is favourable for intensification at at
least the standard rate. Rapid intensification is possible.  

The range of NWP tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards
the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. It is possible that the
system will take a more southwesterly track and remain over water as it moves
down the west coast south of Exmouth. In this scenario wind impacts down the
west coast will be much greater. Shear increases as the system moves south but
the increase is not as abrupt as is often the case and the system is likely to
undergo ETT and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes.

Interaction with an approaching trough will turn the system to the south
southeast and increase speed during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of
landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though
it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western
Australia.







Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

高層清空中
即將開眼

t02436

BoM升澳式C3
JTWC升C1

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 12/03/2015
Name: Tropical Cyclone Olwyn
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.6S
Longitude: 114.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [203 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [20 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 983 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0 D1.0/24HRS STT: 0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  12/1200: 20.7S 114.3E:     040 [075]:  070  [130]:  974
+12:  12/1800: 21.7S 114.1E:     060 [110]:  080  [150]:  965
+18:  13/0000: 22.8S 113.9E:     070 [130]:  065  [120]:  973
+24:  13/0600: 24.2S 113.8E:     080 [150]:  050  [095]:  989
+36:  13/1800: 27.0S 114.6E:     100 [185]:  040  [075]:  995
+48:  14/0600: 31.5S 117.0E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]: 1002
+60:  14/1800: 35.7S 120.2E:     140 [260]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  15/0600: 38.0S 123.0E:     160 [295]:  030  [055]:  996
+96:  16/0600: 37.5S 129.9E:     200 [370]:  030  [055]:  997
+120: 17/0600:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Dvorak: Eye analysis using EIR imagery has a centre embedded in MG, yielding
DT=4.5. Eye has remained ragged/elongated and so eye adjust is -0.5 giving DT of
4.0. This pattern has been consistent for the last several hours and so
CI=FT=4.0. No recent SATCON guidance, but in absence of noticeable improvement
in satellite features and microwave/sat wind guidance, setting intensity at
60knots [10-min mean].

Shear remains low. Upper winds show good outflow over all quadrants.Ocean heat
content is high. The environment is favourable for intensification at at least
the standard rate. Rapid intensification is possible.  

The range of NWP tracks now has a narrow spread with the system tracking towards
the south southwest towards the west Pilbara coast. It is possible that the
system will take a more southwesterly track and remain over water as it moves
down the west coast south of Exmouth. In this scenario wind impacts down the
west coast will be much greater. Shear increases as the system moves south but
the increase is not as abrupt as is often the case and the system is likely to
undergo ETT and retain significant wind strength into higher latitudes.

Interaction with an approaching trough will turn the system to the south
southeast and increase speed during Friday with ETT likely. A combination of
landfall and increasing shear will weaken the system during this period though
it will produce heavy rain and squally winds over a large part of Western
Australia.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 12/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

加速南下
即將登陸西澳西北岸