t02436

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
   編號  : 21 U ( 24 S )
   名稱  : Quang


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 04 月 27 日 13 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 04 月 29 日 02 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 05 月 02 日 10 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 西澳州 Exmouth Gulf

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
美國海軍 (JTWC) ：115  kts ( CAT.4 )
澳洲氣象局 (BoM) : 105  kts ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓    ：945  百帕

  討論帖圖片  
98S.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.13.1S.114.1E
以上資料來自 :BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇編輯製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8S 113.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 620 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. A 270713Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. AN OLDER 270216Z SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUSTAINING CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

JTWC升評Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8S
113.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY 575 NM NORTH
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. A 271401Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

BoM準備編號

IDW24000
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 9:42 am WST on Tuesday 28 April 2015
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Tropical Low was located at 8 am WST near 13.8S 112.7E,
that is 920 km north of Exmouth and moving southwest at 16 kilometres per hour.
The system is not expected to affect the WA mainland in the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3 pm WST.

補充BoM首報
巔峰上望澳式C2

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0254 UTC 28/04/2015
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 112.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:   
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  28/0600: 14.1S 111.9E:     030 [060]:  035  [065]: 1000
+12:  28/1200: 14.4S 111.2E:     045 [080]:  035  [065]:  999
+18:  28/1800: 14.5S 110.8E:     055 [105]:  035  [065]:  998
+24:  29/0000: 14.7S 110.4E:     070 [130]:  040  [075]:  996
+36:  29/1200: 15.3S 109.8E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  990
+48:  30/0000: 16.3S 109.7E:     110 [200]:  055  [100]:  987
+60:  30/1200: 17.3S 110.3E:     130 [235]:  060  [110]:  984
+72:  01/0000: 18.2S 110.9E:     145 [270]:  050  [095]:  988
+96:  02/0000: 21.1S 111.8E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1003
+120: 03/0000: 23.8S 113.8E:     280 [515]:  030  [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
Position of a tropical low near 13.8S 112.7E at 00Z was found using satellite
and microwave imagey, particulary the SSMIS 2330Z microwave scan. Rapidscat data
at 1312Z showed gales occurring in the southeastern quadrant, although these
were somewhat rain affected.

This system has rapidly developed over the past 24 hours. Dvorak analysis gave
DT of 2.5 which was adjusted to 2.0 for the FT/CI based on the MET and PT
adjustments.

Sea surface temperatures are above 29 degrees. Shear is low [about 10 knots on
CIMMS] and outflow is improving to the south as an upper trough approaches. The
environment is very favourable for further development in the next 24 to 48
hours. By Friday wind shear is expected to increase over the system and so it is
expected to weaken as it approaches the coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

甜心

Meow

已升格一級熱帶氣旋，命名Quang，上望三級強烈熱帶氣旋。

At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Quang was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal eight south (14.8S)
longitude one hundred and ten decimal zero east (110.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds   : 40 knots
Central pressure: 997 hPa

ben811018

最新的雲圖與預測路徑~

Meow

Quang真的duang了，中心加特效上去。:lol



IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1900 UTC 29/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 108.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  30/0000: 16.8S 108.9E:     030 [060]:  085  [155]:  961
+12:  30/0600: 17.4S 109.2E:     045 [080]:  085  [155]:  962
+18:  30/1200: 18.0S 109.7E:     055 [105]:  080  [150]:  964
+24:  30/1800: 18.5S 110.1E:     070 [130]:  070  [130]:  972
+36:  01/0600: 19.6S 110.8E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  986
+48:  01/1800: 20.9S 111.1E:     110 [200]:  040  [075]:  994
+60:  02/0600: 23.1S 111.9E:     130 [235]:  030  [055]: 1001
+72:  02/1800: 24.8S 114.1E:     145 [270]:  025  [045]: 1004
+96:  03/1800:             :              :            :     
+120: 04/1800:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe TC Quang has undergone a period of rapid intensification over the past 12
hours. A clear eye is now apparent on EIR satelite imagery, and the 1155UTC
TC_SSMISS microwave imagery showed an intense and well-defined low level centre.
Dvorak analysis is based on an eye pattern, with a black or light grey eye
embedded within cold medium grey over the past few hours, and this yields DTs
between 5.5 and 6.5. MET is 5.0 and PAT is 5.5, with FT/CI constrained to 5.0.
Objective guidance is struggling with the system. Current intensity is 80 knots
[10 minute mean winds]. ADT has failed to detect the eye, and as a result has CI
only around 4.0.

The broadscale environment is favourable for the system to maintain intensity
and possibly develop further in the next 12-24 hours - wind shear being low,
strong upper level ouflow and SST above 28 degrees. Thus intensification to
category 4 intensity 90knots] cannot be ruled out in the short term.  

However, dry air that is currently evident on the western periphery is expected
to combine with increasing wind shear from late Thursday and particularly during
Friday resulting in rapid weakening below cyclone intensity prior to landfall.
Nevertheless gales may persist in the southeast quadrant and hence there remains
the possibility of gales or near gale-force winds about the northwest of the
state late Friday and into Saturday morning.

The track is likely to continue towards to the south Thursday morning before
turning towards the southeast Thursday afternoon as the dominant steering ridge
shifts more to the east of the system ahead of a broad mid-latitude trough in
the Indian Ocean.  

Model guidance still has a reasonable spread of possible tracks and intensities.
Models taking the system east of the forecast track are stronger [relative to
the other models], while models west of the forecast track have the weaker
systems. This is consistent with the shear being weaker in the east and strong
in the west.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

t02436

BoM升格四級強烈熱帶氣旋

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0152 UTC 30/04/2015
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Quang
Identifier: 21U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 109.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: south [175 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [10 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS  STT:D1.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  30/0600: 17.6S 109.4E:     025 [050]:  100  [185]:  949
+12:  30/1200: 18.2S 109.7E:     040 [070]:  090  [165]:  956
+18:  30/1800: 18.7S 110.1E:     050 [095]:  080  [150]:  965
+24:  01/0000: 19.4S 110.5E:     065 [120]:  070  [130]:  974
+36:  01/1200: 20.5S 111.1E:     085 [155]:  050  [095]:  989
+48:  02/0000: 22.2S 111.7E:     105 [190]:  035  [065]:  999
+60:  02/1200: 24.1S 113.3E:     125 [230]:  030  [055]: 1002
+72:  03/0000: 26.3S 116.0E:     140 [265]:  025  [045]: 1006
+96:  04/0000: 30.5S 130.4E:     185 [345]:  020  [035]: 1009
+120: 05/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Severe TC Quang has undergone a period of rapid intensification over the past 12
to 18 hours.

Microwave imagery over the last 6 hours has shown a very tight upper level
circulation, and also a tight low level circulation in the 1806Z GMI scan which
was able to resolve it. IR satellite imagery is showing a clear eye.

For Dvorak, EIR satellite imagery is also showing a clear eye with DT's of 6.0
to 6.5, with CI constrained to 6.0.

Current intensity is set to 100 knots. Raw ADT [CIMMS and NESDIS] are 6 and 6.3,
but are constrained due to the rapid intensification of the system.

Latest satellite imagery indicates a slight weakening over the last hour or two.
Shear at 18Z was about 15 knots in the same direction as the systems motion.
However, shear is forecast to steadily increase from now onwards. This, along
the with the dry air on the western periphery is expected to bring about a rapid
weakening over the next 48 hours, with the system forecast to drop below
tropical cyclone intensity on Saturday morning.

Model guidance is not handling the intensity of the system due to its small
size. However, they are fairly consistent with respect to the forecast motion.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 30/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

JTWC 00Z 評價115Kts



18Z預報