t02436

  熱帶風暴  
編號：01 L
名稱：Ana


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 05 月 06 日 15 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 05 月 08 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 05 月 13 日 18 時
登陸地點　　：美國 南卡羅來納州

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
國家颶風中心 (NHC) ： 50 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓         ：998 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  

AL, 90, 2015050606,   , BEST,   0, 265N,  790W,  25, 1016, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1018,  120,  50,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 001,

90L.INVEST.25kts.1015mb.26.8N.79.4W


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NHC : Low

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

以上資料來自 : NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

Meow

NHC認為有成為副熱帶氣旋的機會，一旦增強到副熱帶風暴就會命名Ana，不過這算季外系統。

shadow16

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending over portions of
Florida, the Bahamas, and adjacent waters are associated with an
upper-level trough and a weak surface low located over the
northwestern Bahamas.  The aircraft reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been cancelled.  However, conditions are
expected to become gradually more favorable for development over the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northward.  A
subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by Thursday or Friday,
and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8
PM EDT today. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

shadow16

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located about 220 miles
south-southeast of the South Carolina-North Carolina border has been
nearly stationary the past several hours. Showers and thunderstorms
are gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for development over the next
day or so while this system moves slowly northward and then
northwestward.  A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form later
today or on Friday, and interests along the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system.  An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the low later this morning. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible over portions of the coastal southeastern United States
beginning later today.  The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
will be issued on this system by 8 AM EDT this morning.  For
additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

ben811018

不同角度~存圖一下!

t02436

風場掃描顯示周圍風力部分達到35節






美國海軍二度發布TCFA


NWS發布烈風警報

...GALE WARNING...
.LOW 31N78W 1008 MB MOVING N 10 KT. OVER FORECAST WATERS FROM
31N TO 35N BETWEEN 70W AND 81W WINDS TO 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 11
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 32N78W 1006 MB. N OF 31N WITHIN 180 NM OF
CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 33N77W 1010 MB. WITHIN 180 NM E AND NE
QUADRANTS WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.

飛機實測現正進行中




掃出最大風力55節

以下為自動更新數據
實測結束後停止更新。
AF304 Mission #01 into INVEST

t02436

NHC升格副熱帶風暴並命名Ana

WTNT41 KNHC 080233
TCDAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015
1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015

Satellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this
evening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast
is now being designated as a subtropical storm.  Based on adjusted
SFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been
investigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40
kt.  Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum
winds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it
is still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone
at this time.  Since there has been more deep convection occurring
near the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more
likely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm
within the next day or so.  The storm should remain situated near or
over the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for
some slight strengthening.  Later in the period, as the cyclone
approaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of
cooler shelf waters.

The system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the
initial motion estimate is 350/2.  Ana is likely to remain located
to the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the
next 48 hours or so.  Global models show the block breaking down
over the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the
southeastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system
should accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.

We appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for
providing valuable observations, given their limited resources
prior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Note that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 31.5N  77.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  08/1200Z 31.6N  77.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  09/0000Z 31.7N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/1200Z 31.9N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  10/0000Z 32.3N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  11/0000Z 33.4N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
96H  12/0000Z 36.1N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  13/0000Z 41.0N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

ben811018

升格０１Ｌ，第一報！