簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-6-23 15:01
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本帖最後由 t02436 於 2015-6-23 15:04 編輯
補JTWC Medium評級報文
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.2N
68.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENED CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
DEVELOPING LLCC. A 220312Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK
OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE LLCC. A 220142Z WINDSAT
PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT CIRCULATION CENTER WITH STRONGER (UP TO
GALE FORCE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 990 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED
LLCC ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
IMD升格深低壓
ARABIAN SEA:-
YESTERDAY'S DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA MOVED EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD JUNE 2015,
OVER NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA OFF SOUTH GUJARAT COAST NEAR LATITUDE
20.5ONORTH AND LONGITUDE 70.5OEAST, ABOUT 50 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
DIU. IT WOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS SOUTH GUJARAT COAST
NEAR DIU AS A DEEP DEPRESSION BY TODAY, THE 23RD JUNE 2015 AFTERNOON
.
ACCORDING TO LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T
2.0. THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS IS SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE. LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS -88.0OC. ASSOCIATED BROKEN
LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA NORTH OF LATITUDE 14.0ONORTH TO
22.0ONORTH AND EAST OF LONGITUDE 62.0OEAST. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SEA CONDITION IS VERY
ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE AND ALONG AND OFF GUJARAT COAST.
REMARKS:
THE LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINED SAME DURING PAST 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING THE
SAME PERIOD. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX LIES IN
PHASE 5 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN ONE. THE SST IS ABOUT 30OC NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS <50 KJ/CM2 AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH LAND SURFACE. FURTHER,
A TROUGH IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LIES CLOSE TO WEST OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH HAS DEEPENED DURING PAST 12 HOURS. THE INTENSIFICATION TO DEEP
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINLY DUE TO INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE
DEEPENING WESTERLY TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME, SYSTEM MOVED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ABOVE TROUGH AFTER
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SOME TIME. CURRENTLY, THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE RUNS ALONG 20ONORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO EAST OF SYSTEM CENTRE AND MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLY TROUGH RUNS ALONG 68OEAST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO, SYSTEM WOULD
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.
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