簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-7-29 13:27
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JTWC提升評級至Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
167.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 164.7E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
NORTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EXPOSED
CLOUD LINES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ARE WRAPPING INTO THE
CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER. A 290252Z NOAA-19 89 GHZ IMAGE SUGGESTS A
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING. A 282222Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL POSITIONED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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