0908morakot

  強烈颱風  
編號：1521 ( 21 W )
名稱： 杜鵑 ( Dujuan )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2015 年 09 月 15 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2015 年 09 月 23 日 02 時
停編日期　　：2015 年 09 月 29 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：台灣 宜蘭縣 南澳鄉
                         中國 福建省 莆田市 秀嶼區
颱風警報統計：海上警報 20 報         
                         陸上警報 17 報

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局 (CWB)：51 m/s ( 16 級 )
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：55 m/s ( 110 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：58 m/s ( 超強颱風 )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：125 kts ( CAT.4 )
                                                   
最低氣壓與暴風圈半徑
海平面最低氣壓： 925 百帕
七級風半徑　　： 220 公里
十級風半徑　　：  80  公里

  實測資料  


  過去路徑圖  






  影片紀錄  

中央災害應變中心資料匯整連結：1521 杜鵑颱風 (中央災害應變中心資料匯整)
雨量記錄帖連結：1521杜鵑颱風影響期間累積雨量整理
風速紀錄帖連結：(資料整理中)
實況回報帖連結：1521 杜鵑颱風 各地實況帖
回顧文連結：杜鵑(Dujuan) 颱風總回顧

  討論帖圖片  
97W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.9N.171E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4N 162.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
CONSOLIDATING TURNING OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
WHILE A 170332Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS VERY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, A
162330Z RSCAT SHOWS A CLEAR CIRCULATION WITH WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
LOW TO MODERATE VWS. GLOBAL MODELS, HOWEVER, DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
OUTSIDE OF 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jef493600

這個系統過幾天 可能將成為西太平洋 相當巨大熱帶系統
下周就要關注他的動向了

alu

jef493600 發表於 2015-9-18 23:23
這個系統過幾天 可能將成為西太平洋 相當巨大熱帶系統
下周就要關注他的動向了

它不是消散了嗎？天氣圖表裡已經沒有它的身影我以為它已經消散了呢

ktf

現在配置典型聖嬰,副高偏東偏弱
也沒啥好變動了,夏颱路徑快要接近尾聲了

甜心

:o雖然它看起是很隻擾動低壓巨嬰給人感覺後期會是隻很大的天氣系統。

但是目前它週遭的環境實在很極端北邊風切大的嚇人西邊又是一片乾冷海域，目前太平洋高壓也沒西伸局勢所以可能得觀再察幾天了不見得會很有前途阿。

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.4N
152.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 150.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 191131Z
METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, HOWEVER, OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS SURFACE WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY AS EVIDENCED IN THE 191045Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE, WHICH
SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS, HOWEVER, PERIPHERAL
SURFACE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS PRIOR TO THE SYSTEM
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

結構還是相當鬆散...

t02436

JTWC發佈TCFA


JMA升格TD
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 148E WNW SLOWLY.