簽到天數: 3279 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2015-9-19 11:17
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CPHC21Z升格05C
巔峰上望45節 目前看來無緣以熱帶性質跨洋
WTPA45 PHFO 190251
TCDCP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP052015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 18 2015
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 360 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
JOHNSTON ISLAND DEVELOPED WELL-DEFINED BANDING WITHIN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHERN QUADRANT TODAY. A 2102 UTC ASCAT PASS
DETECTED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AROUND AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NUMEROUS AREAS OF 30
KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-C...THE TENTH TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC FOR THE 2015 SEASON. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.0/30 KT FROM HFO AND SAB
AND 1.5/25 KT FROM JTWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 35 DEGREES...AT 13
KT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THIS TRACK BETWEEN A DEEP RIDGE
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DIGGING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MOTION IS EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY. THE CYCLONE WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND ACCELERATE ON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT INCREASINGLY INTERACTS WITH THE SLOW
MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF A RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODEL
ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF DIVERGING
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE
BIG CHALLENGE IS HOW THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
FIVE-C IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND IS
EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS FLOW IS
RESTRICTING OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT IS PRODUCING AN
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EDGES CLOSER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AND ARREST
THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS LGEM
CLOSELY AND ASSUMES THAT THIS PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATE SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY. THIS FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...IN WHICH MOST MEMBERS ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY LONGER.
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM LISIANSKI
ISLAND TO MARO REEF TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 18.6N 174.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 19.8N 173.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 21.1N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 22.9N 172.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 24.8N 172.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 29.5N 172.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 23/0000Z 37.1N 172.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 24/0000Z 42.2N 176.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER WROE
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