0908morakot

  熱帶低壓  
編號：93 W
名稱：無


  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2015 年 10 月 15 日 06 時
升格熱低日期：2015 年 10 月 20 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2015 年 10 月 21 日 05 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ： 15 m/s ( 30 KT )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC) : 20 kts
海平面最低氣壓    ：1006 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.3.5N.179.2E


以上資料來自 :CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.4N 155.8E
(INVEST 93W), APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN AN 181047Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS. AN 180833Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

中心還是裸的...

t02436

JTWC提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
154.9E (INVEST 93W), IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY
580 NM EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY. A 190821Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWED WELL DEFINED
SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 191024Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE LLCC PREVENTING
CENTRAL CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY WEAK
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO 20 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

對流稀少還有待發展

t02436

JMA 18Z升格熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 154E NW SLOWLY.

甜心

:o這隻熱低壓目前所處環境非常不理想，如果它沒跑快一點沒意外的將會被薔琵未來轉化的溫旋給吞食。

alu

如果這隻熱低壓以目前的方向和速度前進，到時不是和94 W一起被1525 薔琵吞食，就是薔琵被 93W、94 W較強那隻熱低壓給吞食

t02436

補充一下
23Z降評Low

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
152.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 152.2E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR SHOWS SOME
FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE BROAD, EXPOSED
AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATED MARGINAL
DIVERGENCE AND LOW VWS. GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF TY 25W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

06Z取消評級

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N
152.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

JMA 00Z繼續判定為熱帶低壓

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 21N 151E NW 10 KT.

發展受到西側薔琵牽制，目前中心全裸。