開啟輔助訪問
 找回密碼
 立即加入

20E.Patricia 實測猛爆成新一代風王-NHC:185KT

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-10-18 03:22 | 顯示全部樓層
<本帖比照1330 海燕 辦理永久高亮 置頂 >


  五級颶風  
編號:20 E
名稱:Patricia


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2015 10 18 02
命名日期  :2015 10 21 11
消散日期  :2015 10 25 14
登陸地點  :墨西哥 哈利斯科州

  巔峰時期資料  
  初始分析  
近中心最強風速:175  kt ( CAT.5 )
海平面最低氣壓:879 百帕

  最佳路徑修正  
近中心最強風速:185  kt ( CAT.5 )
海平面最低氣壓:872 百帕

  過去路徑圖  




Best Track


  衛星雲圖動畫  




  討論帖圖片  
97E.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.12.8N.93.5W



NHC:20%
1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, extending
from Central America westward to several hundred miles south of
southeastern Mexico, is associated with a broad area of low
pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the low moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x

評分

參與人數 2水氣能量 +105 收起 理由
布丁4 + 90 真的要加C.6了
t02436 + 15

查看全部評分

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-10-20 09:33 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-10-20 09:37 編輯

      評級提升至MediumNHC預估明.後天增強至T.D

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity extending several hundred milesoff the coast of Guatemala and southern Mexico is associated witha low pressure system located about 220 miles southeast of PuertoEscondido, Mexico.  Although strong northerly winds blowing overthe Gulf of Tehuantepec are temporarily inhibiting development,environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropicaldepression to form during the next day or two while the low moveswest-northwestward or northwestward offshore of the coast ofsoutheastern Mexico.  Interests along the south-central andsouthwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of thissystem during the next few days.  Regardless of development, locallyheavy rains are possible over portions of southern Mexico,Guatemala, and El Salvador during the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

墨西哥南部對流整合發展





本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-10-20 16:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC  發佈  TCFA


WTPN21 PHNC 200500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6N 93.4W TO 13.8N 97.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.8N 93.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.8N 93.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 170NM SOUTHEAST OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200120Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
AWAY FROM LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 210500Z.//
NNNN



本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2277 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-10-20 23:24 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC 15Z升格20E,巔峰上望85節,五天後登陸墨西哥並減弱消散。
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201457
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015

Satellite data indicate that deep convection associated with the
area of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Puerto
Escondido, Mexico, has become sufficiently well organized to
designate the system as a tropical depression.  The circulation of
the low has also become better defined according to an overnight
ASCAT pass, though it could still be somewhat elongated to the
south.  The depression's cloud pattern is characterized by
interlocking convective bands, with the estimated low-level center
underneath the eastward tip of the western band.  A Dvorak intensity
estimate of T2.0 from TAFB is used to set the initial intensity at
30 kt.

Since the center location uncertainty has been high until
very recently, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain
280/02.  The track guidance is in very good agreement that a
mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico with an east-northeast to
west-northwest orientation should impart a west-southwestward motion
for about 24 hours.  A turn toward the west and west-northwest
with some increase in forward speed is forecast by 36 hours once the
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward.  When the cyclone
reaches the western edge of ridge around 72 hours, it should turn
northwestward.  The evolution of a deep longwave trough over the
southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico is of critical
importance to the track forecast after that time as the cyclone
nears the southwestern coast of Mexico. There are differences
between the models regarding the timing and strength of a shortwave
trough dropping into the southwestern U. S. during this period,
resulting in increasing spread of the track guidance after 72
hours.  The track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus,
but it is a little west of the GFS and ECMWF solutions beyond day 3.

The large-scale environment around the cyclone is forecast to be
quite conducive for intensification during the next few days, with
SSTs to above 30 deg C, a rich moisture supply in the lower to
middle troposphere, and very light vertical shear.  The main
limiting factor should be how quickly the cyclone develops enough
inner-core organization to potentially rapidly intensify.  Prior to
landfall, an increase in southwesterly vertical shear and drier air
associated with the mid-to upper-level trough to the northwest could
result in weakening, with a peak intensity mostly likely between the
72- and 96-hour points.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the
multi-model consensus and in best agreement with the LGEM output
until the forecast landfall.  Dissipation is shown after 96 hours,
though it could occur sooner over the high terrain of the Sierra
Madre Occidental.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 13.3N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 13.0N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 12.8N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 12.9N  98.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 13.9N 101.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 16.3N 103.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  24/1200Z 20.5N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain







本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-10-21 12:49 | 顯示全部樓層
20E獲得命名"Patricia"

目前對流東側發展較旺盛  整合發展中




本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 2140 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2015-10-22 16:17 | 顯示全部樓層
若是在我們這邊體型這麼巨大的熱帶風暴(輕度颱風)氣象局應該會給他180公里暴風圈半徑,不過這樣驚人的幼兒期體位對它而言可能會弊多於利強度要到C2它可能需要很長一段整合時間。

點評

是喔,現在它強度多少了  發表於 2015-10-23 12:38
是喔,現在它強度多少了  發表於 2015-10-23 12:37
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 12 天

[LV.3]偶爾看看II

ktf|2015-10-22 22:15 | 顯示全部樓層


極為優異的水氣狀態,一副大爆發態勢,這種驚人的水氣不多見

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

簽到天數: 240 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2015-10-22 22:17 | 顯示全部樓層
這隻看起來也不得了
悄悄的風眼已經快開了 發展相當快速
高層也開始清了 且是個針眼的樣子
疑似有RI的現象發生
稍早強度已經提升至 80 KT

本帖子中包含更多資源

您需要 登錄 才可以下載或查看,沒有帳號?立即加入

x
回復

使用道具 舉報

快速回覆
您需要登錄後才可以回帖 登錄 | 立即加入

本版積分規則

本平台僅供學術討論之用,預報應以氣象局為準

威普網站虛擬主機贊助公司

臺灣第一個天氣類型社群平台 即時天氣資訊、精準颱風動態

線上客服
FB傳送訊息
廣告行銷
精準行銷 物超所值
官方粉專
發佈 快速回復 返回頂部 返回列表