0908morakot

  基本資料     
編號　　　　：93 B
擾動編號日期：2015 年 10 月 24 日 13 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 10 月 28 日 14 時
93B.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.6.3N.83.4E

甜心

:)看起來感覺像是一盤散沙北印度洋鮮少出現秋末擾動，它本身的狀況看起來像是一個很巨大但鬆散的季風低壓不過內心卻是極偏暖的總知尚需幾日整合暫時還有發展空間。

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.9N 83.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 240824Z NOAA-19
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER THE LLCC AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION SHOULD HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OFF THE
EAST COAST OF SRI LANKA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

目前GFS預測垂直北上

alu

跟太平洋比起來北印度洋的熱帶氣旋最強好像也只有輕度颱風中等強度(以今年來看)，我想這隻以目前資料來看跑的比較遠會不會變得比較強