甜心

:o這隻北印度洋孟加拉灣擾動低壓寶貴96B的先天條件跟大氣環境都比另一邊的05A氣旋來的良好，目前螺旋形態已現緯度也不高風切也不強未來有很大的發展空間。

路徑方面尚未排除後期侵襲印度半島地區的可能性但需在觀察一兩天。

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JTWC 18Z提升評級至Medium

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 89.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 071317Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
BROAD, DEFINED LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE INDIAN
COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

數值目前預測未來將橫越印度半島進入阿拉伯海

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JTWC 0530Z發布TCFA




IMD已於03Z編號BOB03，預測24小時內升格深低壓，登陸前命名。

Dated: 08.11.2015 Time of issue: 1200 hours IST
A: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal
(Pre-cyclone Watch for north Tamil Nadu & Puducherry coasts)
Bulletin No.: BOB-03/2015/01
A depression has formed over southwest Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 8th November, 2015 near latitude 10.70 N and longitude 83.70 E,about 460 km southeast of Chennai, 440 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 480 km east-northeast of Jafna (Sri Lanka). It would move west-northwestwards, intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours and subsequently into a cyclonic storm. It would cross Tamil Nadu coast between Karaikal and Chennai close to Puducherry around 9th midnight.

Heavy rainfall warning:
Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cm or more) would occur over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during next 24 hours and north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry during subsequent 24 hours.Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy falls would occur over south and north interior Tamil Nadu during next 24 hours and over south Tamil Nadu, Rayalseema, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala during subsequent 24 hours.

BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA
THE WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
CONCENTRATED INTO A DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 0300 UTC OF TODAY THE 8TH
NOVEMBER 2015 OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 10.7°N AND LONGITUDE
83.7°E, ABOUT 450 KM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43278), 440 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUDUCHERRY
(43331), 420 KM EAST OF KARAIKAL (43346) AND 480 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF JAFNA (43404)
(SRILANKA), IT WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION
DURING NEXT 24 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO A CYCLONIC STORM. IT WOULD CROSS NORTH
TAMIL NADU COAST BETWEEN KARAIKAL AND CHENNAI BY 1800 UTC of 9
TH NOVEMBER, CLOSE TO
PUDUCHERRY.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERY, INTENSITY IS T 1.5. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. THE WINDS ARE HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
SECTOR. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 HPA. STATE OF SEA AROUND SYTEM
CENTRE IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH
EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, BETWEEN
LATITUDE 6.0 DEGREE NORTH TO 15.0 DEGREE NORTH AND LONGITUDE 78.0 DEGREE EAST TO 90.0
DEGREE EAST. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS MINUS 88 DEG C. WINDS ARE HIGHER IN
NORTHEAST SECTOR.
REMARKS:
THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANISED DURING PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW
LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY IS 100 x 10-5
SEC-1
, CONVERGENCE IS 20 x 10-5 SEC-1, AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS 20 x 10-5
SEC-1
. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AT 200 HPA LEVEL RUNS ALONG
16°N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AROUND THE REGION OF DEPRESSION IS 29-30°C. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 10-20 KNOTS (MODERATE) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. MJO
LIES IN PAHSE 3 WITH AMPLITUDE GREATER THAN 1. IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN PHASE 3 FOR
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WHICH IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE
MODEL SUGGESTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT REACHING NORTH TAMIL NADU COAST BY
9TH NIGHT /10TH MORNING. BUT THERE IS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE NWP MODELS REGARDING THE
PEAK INTENSITY WHICH VARIES FROM DEEP DEPRSSION TO CYCLONIC STORM. UNDER THE
SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTARDS AND INTENSIFY INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 24 HOURS.

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IMD 00Z升格深低壓，不看好命名。

Dated: 09.11.2015 Time of issue: 1200 hours IST
A: Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal
Bulletin No.: BOB-03/2015/04
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 18 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 9th November 2015 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.6°N and longitude 80.3°E, about 60 km east-southeast of Puducherry and 150 km southeast of Chennai. It would move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast to the south of Puducherry, close to Cuddalore around noon of today, the 9th November

JTWC認為中心即將登陸，0530Z取消TCFA並不再發出任何評級。

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N
82.4E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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系統進入印度半島後，對流雖然大幅減弱，但JTWC重新評級Low

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION - SUBJECT OF A PREVIOUS TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT THAT HAS SINCE BEEN CANCELED - HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 12.8N 78.9E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM INLAND AND WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH WANING CONVECTION AS A RESULT OF
LAND INTERACTION OVER SOUTHERN INDIA. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT IS MOSTLY OFFSET BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER IT EXITS INTO THE ARABIAN SEA
BY TAU 72.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS - BASED ON NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS - ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE NEGATIVE
EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION, AND DESPITE THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.