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03S.Annabelle 漸入高緯轉化中

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-11-18 00:21 | 顯示全部樓層
  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號:01-20152016 ( 03 S )
名稱:Annabelle


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2015 11 18 00
命名日期  :2015 11 21 09
撤編日期  :2015 11 28 05
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) :55 kt ( STS )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):60 kt (  TS  )
海平面最低氣壓   :986 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
94S.INVEST.15kts.-NAmb.3.7S.82.7E



以上資料來自:MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
krichard2011 + 15 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-18 03:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-11-18 03:26 編輯

JTWC  18Z評級為  Low
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.7S 82.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROADLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROKEN BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION
PERSISTING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC. AN EARLIER 170427Z ASCAT
PASS INDICATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER RANGED FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY,
IN AN AREA OF STRONG GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE FAVORABLE, RANGING FROM
29 TO 30 CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KTS) WITH FAVORABLE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-11-19 01:46 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級到Medium




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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-20 15:40 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-11-20 15:52 編輯

JTWC  發佈"TCFA"  有機會在1天內升格
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7S 74.0E TO 12.9S 69.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200700Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 73.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 76.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 73.1E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
200230Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING
TO CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP TIGHTLY INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFYING TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210730Z.//
NNNN

從雲圖可看見  螺旋明顯  對流也有發展起來跡象



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-11-20 16:19 | 顯示全部樓層
MFR昨天18Z編號熱帶擾動一號
今天06Z升格熱帶低壓,預測24小時內命名,巔峰上望中等熱帶風暴。

ZCZC 412
WTIO30 FMEE 200631
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20152016
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  1
2.A POSITION 2015/11/20 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 72.8 E
(TEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL
EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE:  SE:  SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/20 18 UTC: 10.6 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2015/11/21 06 UTC: 11.1 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/21 18 UTC: 11.7 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/22 06 UTC: 12.3 S / 72.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2015/11/22 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2015/11/23 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/24 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 76.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.5- CI=2.5-
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE SYSTEM DISPLAYS SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANISATION WITH THE EMERGENCE OF A CURVED BAND NEAR THE CENTER,
WHICH SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN SINCE 0300Z. CENTRAL MSLP HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED THANKS TO BUOY NB 1400569 WHICH INDICATED A CORRECTED
PRESSURE OF 1001.6 AT 0400Z. PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH AT 0412Z INDICATES
MAXIMAL WINDS OF 25KT AND LOCALLY 30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CONSIDERING THESE ELEMENTS AND THE IMPROVING SYSTEM PATTERN,
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD QUITE QUICKLY ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LAST TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TO SLOW
DOWN. FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, LEAVING A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE AVERAGE OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND THE AVERAGE TRACK OF UK-GFS-EURO OF 12Z.
TODAY, THE ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. WITH A GOOD UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH SST, SOME STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SUNDAY, THE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CALL THE END OF THE FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR
INTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MODEST TROPICAL
CYCLONE AT ITS BEST ... AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST.=
NNNN







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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2015-11-20 17:26 | 顯示全部樓層
94s這隻熱低壓的螺旋幅度好有氣勢結構很不錯,它或許將有很大的機率成旋為南印度洋展開今年的風季呢那邊現在已經是夏天嚕。
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2015-11-21 00:20 | 顯示全部樓層
螺旋性相當漂亮 JTWC 稍早率先升格 TS


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2015-11-21 09:57 | 顯示全部樓層
已命名Annabelle。



WTIO30 FMEE 210014

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20152016
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ANNABELLE)

2.A POSITION 2015/11/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 70.9 E
(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY    DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT :   UNDETERMINED

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW:  NW:



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2015/11/21 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2015/11/22 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 70.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2015/11/22 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2015/11/23 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2015/11/23 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2015/11/24 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2015/11/25 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2015/11/26 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTER INTO A IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN, WITH A LARGE BANDE IN THE EAST.

THE CURRENT WESTWARDS TRACK HAS CLEARLY SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT
HOURS, ALL AVAILABLE NWP FORECAST TRACK TO BEND SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AN EQUATORIAL MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD GRADUALLY STEERED THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.

ALONG THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH A
GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND TWO OUTFLOW
CHANNELS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN UP TO THE GREATER
STAGE OF TROPICAL STORM.
BUT ON SUNDAY, NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN. ON TUESDAY,
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS IN THE TRADES FLOW FILLING UP
PROGRESSIVELY.=

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alu
Meow 大大,剛看到差點以為怎麼到電影網站了,一看名字就笑了,好險只是名字一樣危險程度不一樣  發表於 2015-11-21 15:28
大大它後期若偏西角度較大會不會有可能侵襲到R.M.L這三個島嶼阿。  發表於 2015-11-21 14:37
哈哈 想說怎麼放這圖片 原來這英文名子是安納貝爾  發表於 2015-11-21 10:45
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