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04P.Tuni 中心裸露 轉化前降格熱帶低壓

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-11-24 16:07 | 顯示全部樓層
  一級熱帶氣旋  
編號:04 P ( 03 F )
名稱:Tuni


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2015 11 24 15
JTWC升格日期:2015 11 28 03
命名日期  :2015 11 28 16
撤編日期  :2015 12 01 08
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓
斐濟氣象局 (FMS):40 kt ( CAT.1 )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC):40 kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓   :991 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
95P.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.14.2S.179.1W



以上資料來自:FMS、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
king111807 + 10 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 2318 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-11-24 19:25 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS在今天早上編號03F
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 23/2243 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F [1006HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.0S 179.7W AT
232100UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIOS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
AND JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 24/0906 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD03F [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 14.9S 179.9W AT
240600UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIOS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION POOR.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 700 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND KEEP IT SLOW MOVING WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.




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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-26 10:03 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0S 177.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UNDEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN OLDER 252156Z
METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVIEWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW BIAS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-11-26 23:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC提升評級到Medium
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S
178.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 179.5E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF
SHARPEST TURNING. A RECENT 260946Z METOPA MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WITH THE FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
LOCATED WITHIN THE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW BIAS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-27 07:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC在1930Z發布TCFA




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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-28 05:59 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC升格04P  首報強度暫上看55Kts


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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-28 18:12 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-11-28 21:33 編輯

FMS在0800Z命名"Tuni"
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 28/0932 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI TUNI
CENTRE [993HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6 SOUTH 173.7 WEST AT 280600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING ONTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND
29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY A ISSUED
FROM RSMC NADI ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 28/0758 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.6S 173.7W AT 280600 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES IR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TUNI MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.  

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST
24 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING ONTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. SST AROUND
29 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT 3.0,
MET AND PT AGREES. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 15.9S 171.9W MOV SE AT 11KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC 17.4S 170.2W MOV SE AT 11KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC 18.8S 169.0W MOV SE AT 10KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC 19.8S 168.1W MOV SE AT 09KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TUNI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 281400 UTC






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點評

更正一下...是 Tuni 不是 Tune 喔  發表於 2015-11-28 21:29
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2015-11-28 23:36 | 顯示全部樓層
新預測路徑已指向紐埃,雖然該國人口極少。

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