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22E.Sandra 中心裸露 登陸前降格熱低

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-11-22 06:00 | 顯示全部樓層
  四級颶風  
編號:22 E
名稱:Sandra


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期:2015 11 22 05
命名日期  :2015 11 24 16
消散日期  :2015 11 29 15
登陸地點  :

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 :125  kt ( CAT.4 )
海平面最低氣壓 :935 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
91E.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.12.1N.92.5W



NHC:30%
1. A broad area of low pressure located south of the coast of Guatemala
is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for
development of this system early next week, and a tropical cyclone
will likely form south of the southern coast of Mexico by the middle
of next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

以上資料來自:NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
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簽到天數: 2184 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2015-11-22 15:06 | 顯示全部樓層
91E這隻擾動低壓寶寶組織目前只能用慘不忍睹來形容完全看不出它的中心所在裸個徹底,不過它的雲系滿廣的水氣充足之後看能不能趕快旋轉起來建立螺旋風場跟中心。
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簽到天數: 2318 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-11-22 21:25 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC晚間將兩天展望調升至70%


美國海軍也在剛剛發出TCFA


數值目前普遍看好強度,路徑方面跟Patricia雷同....




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簽到天數: 474 天

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劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-24 07:23 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-11-24 07:49 編輯

NHC  在2100Z升格22E  首報強度上望85KTS  預計5天後侵襲墨西哥
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
300 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015

The first few visible images of the day revealed that the
circulation associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico
had become better defined and likely received some help from an
ongoing gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  The center of
the circulation appears to have formed beneath a small cluster of
deep convection, with elongated convective banding extending to the
north and northeast.  The initial intensity is 30 kt based on
Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB.

Since the center seems to have just formed, the initial motion is a
somewhat uncertain 265/16 kt.  The depression is being pushed
quickly westward by the gap wind event, and it should begin to slow
down a bit as it moves farther away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
The cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward by 36 hours and
then recurve toward the north and north-northeast on days 4 and 5
as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The
track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, with
the exception of the HWRF model, which never really shows full
recurvature.  The NHC official track forecast is very close to a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.

The depression is located within a narrow zone of low shear and
over very warm sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius.
These conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening
during the next 72 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to reach
hurricane intensity in a couple of days.  The SHIPS and LGEM models
are fairly aggressive, bringing the depression just below major
hurricane strength in about 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is
not quite as high as those models for the time being, but it is
slightly higher than the IVCN model consensus through 72 hours.
After that time, strong southwesterly shear should cause the system
to weaken quickly, and it could be back to tropical depression
status by day 5.  However, the intensity forecast at the end of the
forecast period is of low confidence.

Although there are no 12-foot seas directly associated with the
depression, there are high seas to its northeast due to gales
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Refer to High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO
header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml for more
information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 10.8N 102.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 10.8N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 11.4N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 12.4N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 13.2N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 24.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH




目前雲圖看起來  螺旋明顯  中心對流也有發展起來跡象








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劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-24 16:51 | 顯示全部樓層
NHC  命名  Sandra
TROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015
300 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized during
the past 6 hours, with a large curved convective cloud band with
tops colder than -80C and considerable lightning activity having
developed in the northern semicircle. In addition, a small CDO-like
feature has recently developed over the low-level center. The
initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on blend of
satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.9/43 kt
from UW-CIMMS ADT at 0600 UTC, and the improved convective
appearance since that time. This makes Sandra the 18th named storm
of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.

Sandra's initial motion is now 275/11 kt. During the next 3-4 days,
Sandra is forecast to gradually slow down as it moves around the
western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends
from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico westward across central Mexico.
On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward and
accelerate ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough that will be moving
eastward toward the western coasts of the United States and Baja
California. The NHC model guidance remains good agreement on this
developing steering flow scenario, and the official forecast track
lies close to the consensus model, TVCE.

The intensity forecast is a little less straightforward than the
track forecast. Only the HWRF model shows Sandra reaching an
intensity of 75 kt; all of the other guidance is below that value.
This is something of an enigma given that the cyclone will be (a)
moving over SSTs greater than 29C, (b) in a moist mid-level
environment consisting of humidity values greater than 75 percent,
and (c) in a very low vertical shear environment of less than 5 kt.
These three factors typically would result in rapid intensification,
especially since it appears that Sandra is in the process of
developing a tighter inner-core wind field. The GFS-based SHIPS
intensity model indicates that the main inhibiting factors are the
shear direction and warmer-than-average 200 mb temperatures.
However, the latter doesn't appear to be a factor given the very
cold cloud tops currently noted. The global models are all
forecasting a pronounced upper-level anticyclone and a favorable
outflow pattern to develop over Sandra in the 24-48 hour period,
which should negate the negative shear direction parameter. As a
result, at least climatological development is forecast through 48
hours. By day 4, strong southwesterly shear in excess of 30 kt is
expected to induce rapid weakening as Sandra recurves into the
mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, but now lies above all of the available
intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 10.8N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 11.3N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 12.0N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 12.9N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 14.1N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  27/0600Z 17.7N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  28/0600Z 22.0N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 25.5N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-11-25 15:36 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-11-25 15:38 編輯

NHC在最新一報  升格一級颶風  上看Cat.3
Sandra最近幾小時也有開眼趨勢
環流也越來越渾圓
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 12.0N 107.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 12.6N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 14.0N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 15.8N 110.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 17.7N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 22.0N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 26.0N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED











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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2015-11-25 17:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2015-11-25 17:03 編輯




桑德拉就是之前GFS上望很高的那個. 雖然一度下修了上望
不過NHC這報上望Cat.3 比首報還高. 比預期發展還快了一些

桑德拉的環境比不上帕翠莎.   沒有雙極流. 且11月底環境和潛熱都比帕翠莎稍差點.
只有單向流出為主.

發展好的話不敢說. 但能保證能和之前的Cat.3琳達或西太Cat.4烟花至少差不多.


東太這時候有颶風都很罕見



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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2015-11-25 19:10 | 顯示全部樓層
看來墨西哥有點像西太的菲律賓,每年受到多個熱帶擾動的侵襲,最大差別只在於墨西哥的山比菲律賓來的高和長能夠有效阻擋減弱熱帶擾動對墨西哥的傷害
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