Meow

基本資料   
編號　　　　：04F ( 96P )
擾動編號日期：2015 年 11 月 29 日 09 時
消散日期　　：2015 年 12 月 03 日 04 時

96P.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.14.4S.154.9W

甜心

:o大大標示的應該是右邊這隻低緯擾動吧，不過它中心還遠在東經170度那邊喔目前向西南西在移動。

t02436

JTWC評級Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3S 147.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT 010749Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A REGION OF STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FROM 29 TO 30 CELSIUS.
A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES CYCLONIC ROTATION WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THIS REGION, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), STIFLING THE DEEP CONVECTION
FROM BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

NRL已經在今天凌晨撤編，補充一些資料。

FMS在12/01 21Z編號04F

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.1S 148.0W AT
012100UTC SLOW MOVING.  POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGH INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY
LOW.

12/02 00Z發布GW

GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 02/0114 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 146.6W AT 020000UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL
MILES FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 001.

JTWC在12/02 06Z取消Low評級

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
147.9W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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