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04F (96P) 對流消散

簽到天數: 588 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-11-29 10:07 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2015-12-3 23:30 編輯

基本資料   
編號    :04F ( 96P )
擾動編號日期:2015 11 29 09
消散日期  :2015 12 03 04

96P.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.14.4S.154.9W

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斐濟預測本風季該區域熱帶氣旋將會大活躍  發表於 2015-12-2 00:58
alu
這地區很少有熱帶擾動生成,所以看起來好特別,但不知道會不會進一步增強為氣旋  發表於 2015-11-30 04:14

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
king111807 + 10 贊一個!

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2015-11-30 15:28 | 顯示全部樓層
大大標示的應該是右邊這隻低緯擾動吧,不過它中心還遠在東經170度那邊喔目前向西南西在移動。


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嗯嗯~了解  發表於 2015-12-2 15:04
alu
東南太平洋很少有擾動生成所以沒分  發表於 2015-12-1 17:17
w當然是西經因為北太平洋區域範圍較廣大有分西.中.東3個部份,想說南太平洋區域範圍範圍較小一些應該只分西跟東。  發表於 2015-12-1 17:06
alu
你難道看不懂w是西經,當然是東南太平洋  發表於 2015-12-1 16:30
喔...那邊是東南太平洋了吧  發表於 2015-12-1 16:26
alu
你畫的這隻是04P.Tuni ,96p還在圖外  發表於 2015-11-30 16:04
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-1 21:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.3S 147.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHEAST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT 010749Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A REGION OF STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FROM 29 TO 30 CELSIUS.
A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES CYCLONIC ROTATION WITHIN
THE VICINITY OF THIS REGION, SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS), STIFLING THE DEEP CONVECTION
FROM BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.







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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-3 18:15 | 顯示全部樓層
NRL已經在今天凌晨撤編,補充一些資料。

FMS在12/01 21Z編號04F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.1S 148.0W AT
012100UTC SLOW MOVING.  POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.

CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ORGANISATION
REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGH INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY
LOW.


12/02 00Z發布GW
GALE WARNING 003 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 02/0114 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 04F [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11.0S 146.6W AT 020000UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR.

EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 120 NAUTICAL
MILES FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

AREA OF GALES SLOW MOVING.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 001.


JTWC在12/02 06Z取消Low評級
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3S
147.9W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


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