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98S(04U) 對流散亂

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-12-20 07:46 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料     
編號    :98 S ( 04 U )
擾動編號日期:2015 12 20 07
撤編日期  :2015 12 24 22
98S.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.8.5S.103.0E

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-21 15:52 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 劉瑞益@FB 於 2015-12-21 15:59 編輯

JTWC 0730Z發佈"TCFA" 雲圖看起來是小鋼砲型態





另外補充 JTWC在0430Z評級直接提升"MEDIUN"
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4S 106.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 138 NM SOUTH OF JAKARTA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 202319Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING
TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICTS A FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE, ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.




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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-22 09:47 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 在0030Z取消"TCFA"  重新評級為Low
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S
107.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 107.7E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 212257Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAVE UNRAVELED AND WEAKENED AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT
INDICATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.


從雲圖看出結構轉鬆散




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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-24 19:34 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC昨天18Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
107.7E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


BoM在昨天展望中編號04U,目前來看發展機會並不高。
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:18 pm WST on Thursday 24 December 2015
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 27 December 2015.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

Tropical low (04U) was near 11.2S 111.5E at 1pm WST Thursday 24 December and has been moving east southeast at about 10 knots. The system weakened overnight and is now only a small chance of developing over the next 24 hours before weakening further on Friday.


Likelihood this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday: Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low


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